Beverages

Milk's Mixed Message

Overall sales growing, but consumers moving to premium and alternative varieties

SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- Retail sales of regular milk have grown a bit sour recently as premium milk and milk alternatives have their day, according to a report from the "supermarket guru" Phil Lempert.

Organic milk growing

According to the report, headlines from the milk case include:

  • Double-digit sales gains of higher-priced almond and coconut milks
  • Presence of the Coca-Cola-distributed fairlife brand from Select Milk Producers, which is lactose-free, ultra-filtered milk to concentrate protein and calcium with less sugar
  • The emergence of a2 milk, which comes from cows that produce none of the A1 protein associated with digestive discomfort
  • Solid sales advances in the organic and lactose-free milk sectors
  • Growing popularity of milks free of the rBST hormone

Dean Foods has launched a major campaign to counter these trends with the launch of its new single national brand DairyPure.

All of the milk produced at its 30-plus regional dairies, some $2.5 billion worth, will come under this umbrella, paired with Dean's local brands, according to reports. "The company will highlight its milk is antibiotic-free ... and its farmers' pledge not to use artificial growth hormones."

"The campaign likely won't help prices much, due to the nationwide white-milk glut, but at least the sector could protect share," Lempert said.

The report offers the following Nielsen all-outlets data, including convenience stores, for the 52 weeks ended March 28, 2015:

  • Milk sales overall notched its first rise in three years, up 2.1% to $18.1 billion.
  • Regular white milk sales were flat at $13.3 billion, after two straight years of dollar sales losses.
  • Almond milk sales leaped ahead 28.8% to $859.4 million, following successive annual dollar sales gains of 68.0%, 56.5% and 50.7%.
  • Coconut milk sales advanced 10.0% to $58.5 million, extending yearly dollar sales gains, albeit at a slower pace than the 238.0%, 25.3% and 32.4% lifts of prior years.
  • Lactose-free milk sales grew for the fourth year in a row, this time by 13.0% to $685.9 million after relatively nominal gains of 6.1%, 2.3% and 3.7% in the three prior years.
  • Organic white milk sales doubled their growth pace in the latest 52 weeks to 9.2%, or $1.33 billion, up from last year's 4.5% advance.

In convenience stores, sales of milk rose 1.9% in 2014, according to CSP's Category Management Handbook, citing IRI data. Skim/low-fat milk unit sales dipped 6.7%, and whole milk was flat in units (-0.2%) anf up 4.7% in dollar sales.

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