SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Three-and-a-half years after California voters rejected a $1-per-pack cigarette tax increase, the state will seek to up the tax by $2-per-pack. As reported by the Los Angeles Daily News, the proposed measure would not just up the cigarette excise tax, but include an “equivalent tax” increase on other tobacco products and electronic cigarettes as determined by the state Board of Equalization.
Unlike the 2012 proposed tax increase, which would have largely gone towards cancer research, the 82% of the estimated $1.1 to $1.4 billion per year of additional tax revenue would help fund California’s struggling health care programs.
Supporters are confident about passing the increase this time around—especially after losing in 2012 by just four-tenths of a percentage point, the narrowest defeat of any statewide measure in the state’s history. They also point to the fact that 2016 will be a presidential election, thus bringing out more left-leaning voters.
In order to get on the ballot, California Attorney General Kamala Harris must first issue an official title and summary, which she is expected to do by Dec. 15, 2015. After that, supporters would gather the 365,880 voter signatures needed get on the ballot.
Not everyone is so supportive of the measure. Cynthia Cabrera, president of the Smoke-Free Alternatives Trade Association (SFATA), wrote to Harris to express her objections, namely that the initiative’s language “is misleading to voters by falsely implying that the harmful health effects of tobacco are similar to those of vapor products.”
“We are reviewing the ballot initiative and considering our options,” said David Sutton, a spokesperson for Altria Group Inc. “We are opposed to large, excessive cigarette tax increases like this one proposed in California.”
A Field Poll conducted last summer showed 67% of California voters would support a $2-per-pack increase, with just 30% opposing it.
But Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo warned Los Angeles Daily News that this kind of study is more of a “concept test,” adding “I expect it to be a closer election than what the first poll indicated.”
DiCamillo pointed out that a 2006 proposition to raise the cigarette tax by $2.60 initially enjoyed a 31% lead, but was ultimately voted down by 3.4%.
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