3 Features of the Car of the Future
By Samantha Oller on Mar. 22, 2017DAVIS, Calif. -- The humble car is undergoing a technological transformation, one that will make its future capabilities unlike most vehicles on the road today. That is according to a recent survey of transportation policymakers, researchers, government officials, technology and automotive industry representatives, and nonprofits.
The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis, surveyed 40 transportation specialists for their thoughts on transformational technologies, as well as policy questions, as part of its new 3 Revolutions: Sharing, Electrification and Automation initiative.
If the projections prove correct, the United States is only about two decades away from a very different vehicle fleet. Here are three projections about the car of the future …
1. Automated
According to the survey, 70% of participants expect that fully driverless vehicles will make up more than 20% of vehicle sales by 2040. This is referred to as level 5 automation by the automotive engineering association SAE International, or “the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver.”
Thirty-five percent thought these vehicles would reach this share milestone by 2030.
2. Shared
A large majority (88%) of survey participants thought commercially offered, shared rides would account for 5% of U.S. passenger miles by 2030. These include services such as Uber, Lyft, Zipcar and Bridj.
And 78% thought shared rides would hit 20% of U.S. passenger miles by 2040.
3. Electric
Most ride- and car-sharing vehicles will be zero-emission vehicles by 2050, according to 70% of survey participants. These include battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell electric vehicles, which run on hydrogen.
Who will lead the way?
The vast majority of survey participants thought California would lead in using all three transportation technologies.
Respondents also had a clear idea on which companies will benefit the most from an autonomous, shared and electric vehicle future: Google (chosen by 67% of participants), Tesla and Uber (both at 64%). The conventional vehicle manufacturer that most respondents expected to capitalize on the three technologies was General Motors (GM) at 48%, followed distantly by Ford and Toyota. In 2016, GM created its own car-sharing service, Maven, and invested $500 million in Lyft as part of a strategic alliance. It also delivered its first mass-market electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt.
Survey participants mostly agreed that policy intervention from the government that supports these technologies would determine how widespread and impactful they would be in the coming decades.
“The results of this survey suggest that disruptive technologies are coming from both inside and outside automotive,” said Peter Kosak, executive director of urban mobility at GM. “In the end, partnerships—including working relationships with governments and communities—are likely essential to a rapid and successful transition.”