GAINSVILLE, Ga. -- The outcome of this presidential election will significantly impact domestic energy policy for a long time to come, ushering in platforms upon which the future evolution of the industry will be laid. In addition to the fact that the energy policies of the two candidates are very different, the timing of this particular election is unlike that of most previous ones, in that it provides unique leverage to our next president in regard to shaping the long-term energy landscape for our country and the world.
As we look back on the impact of technology and innovation as it relates to the advancements of energy recovery (particularly in the shale-oil sector), the United States is firmly on different footing with respect to its impact on the global energy scene. Approaching the first anniversary of the lift of the 40-year ban on energy exports, the United States has surprised not only foreign entities with its export capacity, but also is well on its way to energy independence. The question now is: How will the next president influence this momentum?
Apparently energy policy and climate change can no longer exist in isolation when it comes to the political conversation and debate. Because of this union, there is perhaps no previous presidential matchup that is so starkly different than this one. The energy boxing ring is lining up for an interesting spar.
In one corner, Donald Trump, the Republican, is committed to sharp increases in oil and gas drilling on federal lands. In the other corner, Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, promotes reduction of oil consumption by 33% and an increased commitment to solar.
Clinton supports the Clean Power Plan (CPP), while Trump is firmly opposed to it, promising to unwind it—essentially a denial of climate change.
Clinton is supportive of continuing energy tax credits, while Trump believes these credits act as a drug to mute true market realities.
Trump promises to breathe life back into the distressed coal industry, while Clinton has campaigned on its destruction (despite a remarkably different position some years back).
These diverse positions provide for a matchup that is rallying supporters on both sides of the aisle.
Adding to the significance of the platform policy differences between these two campaigns is the fact that there is an ace in the incoming president’s deck of cards, an option that could have an even more significant impact and longer-lasting influence than any executive power: the immediate appointment of at least one Supreme Court justice, and perhaps one to two more in the next four years.
In the past eight years, we have witnessed an administration that has imposed perhaps more regulation on the energy industry than any other previous. Some notable examples include the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) actions that have resulted in seismic changes for coal-fired power generation. This singular action taken by the Obama administration has resulted in massive disruption of how capital is allocated in the sector, and the destruction of primary, secondary and even tertiary supply chains (e.g., coal mining, coal transportation, etc.). There is perhaps no better example of the impact of executive power than this one.
The opinions of these new Supreme Court appointments on the interpretation of executive power cannot be underestimated. These appointments will result in either a dampening or a continued aggressive and burdensome regulatory environment dictated by the EPA and Department of Interior. Of course, another scenario exists in which the appointment of multiple left-leaning justices results in executive powers being unleashed in a way never before seen, from the current administration or any past.
Yes, we are audience participants in a significant energy policy matchup between two starkly different presidential viewpoints. The universe of voting constituents who are truly engaged in the energy policy debate is most certainly a small sliver of the total electorate. Nevertheless, one thing is certain: The next president’s influence on energy policy will have a far-reaching impact on the entire electorate at some point in the near future.
Blake Young is president of Mansfield Oil Co., Gainsville, Ga., which delivers more than 3.5 billion gallons of fuel every year to clients throughout the United States and Canada.
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