WASHINGTON -- AAA forecasts 42.5 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend (November 23 to November 27), a 4% increase from the 40.9 million people who traveled one year ago. This is the first significant increase in any holiday travel this year.
Approximately 38.2 million people (90% of holiday travelers) plan to take to the nation's roadways this Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 4% increase compared to Thanksgiving 2010 when auto travelers totaled 36.8 million. Automobile travel remains the preferred choice of transportation for holiday travelers as it is often more affordable, convenient and flexible. The current national average price for regular unleaded gasoline is approximately $3.39 per gallon, about 50 cents more than one year ago; however, the national average price is about 60 cents less than this year's peak price of $3.98 on May 5.
Almost 3.4 million leisure travelers (8% of holiday travelers) will fly during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 1.8% increase from 2010. Other modes of travel (bus, trains, watercraft, multi-modal travel) will make up the remaining 2% of the total person-trips, with just over 900,000 people expected to travel by these modes, 14.7% higher than in 2010.
"Driving AAA's projected increase in the number of Thanksgiving travelers is pent-up demand from Americans who may have foregone holiday travel the last three years," said Bill Sutherland, vice president, AAA Travel Services. "As consumers weigh the fear of economic uncertainty and the desire to create lasting family memories this holiday, more Americans are expected to choose family and friends over frugality. This is the first significant increase in any holiday travel this year. Memorial Day travel was statistically flat while Independence Day and Labor Day travel experienced decreases of 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively."
While primary economic drivers continue to show improvement from one year ago, growth levels are not high enough to support a quick return to pre-recession levels of holiday travel. Rather a slow climb back is expected from 2008 which was a decade-low year for Thanksgiving travel with only 37.8 million Americans taking a trip. With volumes still below historical averages, pent-up demand will be a contributing factor in increased holiday travel, despite current economic conditions.
Total economic activity, measured as real gross domestic product, is expected to grow by just 1.3% for the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The national unemployment rate is expected to be just fourth-tenths of a percentage point below last year's level. Personal income, real disposable income and consumer spending are all forecast above last year's levels. However, the growth rates of these indicators are weaker than last year, and Americans are expressing uncertainty about the future by way of weaker consumer sentiment and consumer comfort survey results. In particular, household net worth is expected to be 5.6% lower in the fourth quarter of this year compared to last year.
Click here to view the complete AAA/IHS Global Insight 2011 Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Forecast, including charts and regional breakouts.
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