At that time, BP bought Amoco and Arco, Chevron Corp. merged with Texaco, and Exxon acquired Mobil [image-nocss] in a $75 billion deal that was at the time the largest takeover in corporate history. There has been speculation that Exxon Mobil Corp., which built up a huge cash pile last year as oil rose to nearly $150 a barrel, might be considering a bid for a rival such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC or the smaller BG Group PLC.
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A recent Kraft/CSP Daily News Poll on the subject asked, "Do you think two major oil companies will merge during 2009?" Of the 215 respondents, 40% said Shell and BP; more than 16% said ExxonMobil and Shell; and 14% said some other companies; meanwhile, about 30% said no majors would merge.
But Hayward said the logic for such megamergers was not "terribly compelling" since it would not increase the companies' combined resource base-one of the biggest challenges now facing oil companies. Combining a major, with its technological expertise, and a national oil company (NOC), with its greater access to reserves, would make a better fit, he said. NOCs control at least three-quarters of the world's natural resources.
"The challenge for all of us today is to continue to capture resource to enable us to grow," he said.
Such partnerships would, in theory, make sense for the NOCs, too. The global slowdown and falling oil price have badly dented the finances of oil exporters from Russia to Venezuela, and many of the national energy champions are short of cash.
Analysts believe some will not be able to fund costly investment programs without outside help. For example, Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras), may struggle to pay for the development of a string of huge oilfields recently discovered off the coast of Rio de Janeiro state unless it teams up with a cash-rich major like Exxon.
But a full-scale merger between an NOC and an international oil company is unlikely "due to the role NOCs play in advancing policy objectives of their respective foreign governments," Frank Verrastro, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, told the newspaper.
Hayward's comments on megamergers reflect a widespread belief in the industry that big isn't necessarily beautiful. Though much larger than they were in the 1990s, all the majors have had trouble trying to increase production and reserves, said the report.
"When I look at the large companies I don't see the benefit they've had from the round of mergers 10 years ago," Stephen Thornber, global equity fund manager at Threadneedle Investments, told the paper. "All of them are fundamentally short of prospects and opportunities."
He said the sector could still see some consolidation soon, as big companies snap up small independents weakened by the credit crunch. Smaller players focused on exploration and production that need cash to keep drilling have seen their access to capital dry up, and the weakest are now seen as potential acquisition targets for bigger rivals, especially ones with strong balance sheets and an ability to borrow large amounts of cash, like BP.
Hayward spoke as BP announced a net loss for the fourth quarter of $3.34 billion, compared with a profit of $4.4 billion a year earlier, a reflection of much lower oil prices. Replacement cost profit, a closely watched metric that strips out gains and losses on inventory holdings, fell 24% to $2.6 billion. For the full year, net profit stood at $21.2 billion, and replacement cost profit at $25.6 billion, a 39% increase on 2007.
He said with the economic environment deteriorating in 2009, he didn't see the "record financial performance being repeated for some time."
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