CAMARILLO, Calif. -- Self-serve regular gasoline fell slightly in the past three weeks, but this will probably turn out to be a brief lull in an upward curve, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey ofapproximately 7,000 U.S. gas stations. The average price $2.3028 is 2.91 cents lower than it was on January 20, after rising nearly 20 cents during the previous seven weeks.
The retail price dip comes from a slight supply imbalance, with more gasoline supply than Americans needed. We've left [image-nocss] the ditch of January in the annual consumption curve, and will consume more and more from here through August, said Trilby Lundberg.
Joining that pull on supply as a price factor are several regulative-legislative changes that will combine symbiotically as the months unfold, including refinery maintenance projects, seasonal vapor pressure maximums, another cut this year to gasoline sulfur, the mandate to use more ethanol, the undertow from refiners avoiding methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the potential effects on the gasoline market of rolling out ultra-low-sulfur diesel. Between the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the energy bill, U.S. government forces virtually dictate higher gasoline prices and tight supply.
Recently, much higher ethanol prices are adding big price pressure to the mix. Despite the free ride from tax subsidies, the corn-based additive looks to be leading gasoline's upcoming price charge.
Assuming crude oil prices continue to hover somewhere within $61 to $65 per barrel, propped up by disturbing headlines out of several oil and gas producing nations even as the world leaves its high crude oil demand season, retail gasoline prices cannot long linger at $2.30.
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