Fuels

Price Hike Cancelled

Gasoline stability is likely, says Lundberg
CAMARILLO, Calif. -- The November 19 retail price of regular grade was 4.53 cents above two weeks ago, at $2.8729, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of approximately 2,500 U.S. gas stations. The additional 5-7-cent hike expected earlier this month is now unlikely because oil prices gave back their earlier gain.

The closing future price of oil is virtually the same as its month-ago level.

Consumers are paying about 23 cents per gallon more than one year ago, enough to pinch since their economic experience is essentially unimproved since then.

Refiners [image-nocss] and retailers both saw margin improvement in these two weeks.

For retailers, the seesaw continued: Margin widened to nearly 13 cents per gallon after shrinking to less than 8 cents on November 5. This was the same dramatic swing in margin exhibited in October. For refiners, the recovery was the first in several weeks and puts their gasoline margin no better than what it was in mid-August. In their different ways, challenging conditions continue for refiners, retailers and motorists.

Going into December, if oil prices stay at around $82 bbl., then retail gasoline is likely to show little change. Recent refining capacity maintenance issues and supply issues related to French labor strikes notwithstanding, there is more than enough gasoline so it will easily follow whatever crude does.

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