Assuming [image-nocss] no oil supply mishap, gasoline price has very little room to move: Supply remains glutted, demand remains hobbled. The fact that demand softens seasonally from here, and because retail margin gave up only a little of its mid-August windfall, indicate that short term gasoline price change, if any, should be down. The retail price is now less than 6 cents higher than one year ago, and may edge closer still.
But crude oil is king of refined product price moves, trumping even gasoline's strong seasonality of consumption and the effect of the country's damaged employment level upon consumption. It will decide where pump prices go.
Around the country, wholesale-retail gasoline lag time currently implies retail margin down pressure in more than half the markets, up pressure in a few, and stability in the rest. Up pressure is not regional; for example, it is indicated in Miami, Salt Lake and Jackson, Miss. Current U.S. average: 16.03 cents on all grades pooled.
(Click here for previous Lundberg Survey columns in CSP Daily News.)
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