OAK BROOK, Ill. -- Proving the inherent unreliability of polls, the political prognostication abilities of CSP Daily News readers slipped a bit this week when through a pair of Kraft/CSP Daily News polls on Monday (for the Republicans) and Tuesday (for the Democrats) they correctly named U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) as the winner of the Republican New Hampshire primary, but failed to pick U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) as the winner on the Democratic side.
Through a previous pair of polls in early December, readers were dead on with their predictions [image-nocss] that former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would win the Iowa Caucus for their respective parties on January 3. (Click here for the previous coverage.)
About 526,000 New Hampshire voters turned out for the primary on January 8, according to the website TheNewHampshirePrimary.com. The results (99% reporting at presstime) broke down like this:
Democrats
Hillary Clinton, 39% Barack Obama, 36% John Edwards, 17% Bill Richardson, 5% Dennis Kucinich, 1% Joe Biden, 0 % Chris Dodd, 0% Mike Gravel, 0%Republicans
John McCain, 37% Mitt Romney, 31% Mike Huckabee, 11% Rudy Giuliani, 9% Ron Paul, 8% Fred Thompson, 1% Duncan Hunter, 0%More than 300 people responded to the Republican and nearly 275 people responding to the Democratic Kraft/CSP Daily News polls about New Hampshire. Participants chose the candidates that they thought would win (versus the candidate they wanted to win) in each party.
For the Republicans, nearly 53% of the respondents at presstime said that McCain would win. About 23.5% picked former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, about 12% picked the Iowa winner Huckabee, about 8% picked Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, about 2% picked Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and about 1% picked U.S. Representative Ron Paul (R-Texas).
For the Democrats, however, nearly 78% of the respondents at presstime said that Obama would win. Then a little more than 12% picked Clinton. About 7% chose former U.S. Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), nearly 2% picked New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and about 1% selected U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio).
Past winners in New Hampshire have included John Kerry (D) in 2004, George W. Bush (R) and Al Gore (D) in 2000, Pat Buchanan (R) in 1996, Paul Tsongas (D) in 1992, George H.W. Bush (R) and Michael Dukakis (D) in 1988, Gary Hart (D) in 1984 and Ronald Reagan (R) in 1980.
The next big primaries are in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida later this month, as well as "Super Tuesday" (February 5), when 22 states hold primaries or caucuses. (Click here for a full 2008 primary calendar.)
(Please vote in today and tomorrow's new primary polls. Also, please see the January 2008 issue of CSP magazine for more election coverage, and watch for more coverage leading up to November.)
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