Deloitte's study, "Gaining Traction: Will Consumers Ride [image-nocss] the Electric Vehicle Wave?," surveyed 12,000 consumers globally, including more than 1,000 in the United States, and found that the higher the price of fuel, the more interested consumers are in EVs.
"Offsetting the fuel factor is the finding that the better the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the less interested consumers become in EVs," said Craig Giffi, vice chairman, Deloitte and U.S. automotive practice leader. "A total of 68% of consumers in the U.S. and 57% in China are less likely to consider an EV if they are able to find ICEs with a fuel efficiency of 50 miles per gallon."
According to the survey, the majority of consumers' in the world's four largest automotive markets either identify themselves as potential first movers, or at least willing to consider purchasing an EV (U.S. 54%, China 93%, Europe 69%, and Japan 48%). Looking exclusively at the potential first movers segment, only 12% of U.S. consumers surveyed identify themselves as potential first movers in purchasing or leasing an EV.
"For mass adoption, automakers in the U.S. will be challenged to price [EVs] to meet the expectations of consumers and still make a profit on them," said Giffi. "U.S. consumers are not likely to pay any sort of price premium for EVs; therefore, government incentives are very important to the purchase decision."
More than half of U.S. consumers surveyed are not willing to pay any price premium for an EV compared to a regular car (ICE) while only 8% are willing to pay a price premium of more than $3,000. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of these consumers (77%) expect to pay less than $30,000 net of government incentives.
"Global mass adoption of electric vehicles will be significantly influenced by a number of factors, including rising fuel prices, advancements in ICEs and the availability of government incentives," added Giffi. "While interest in [EVs] is growing, current market offerings generally fall far short of consumers' expectations for driving range, charging time and purchase price."
Additional findings from the Deloitte survey include:
Consumers in the United States are aware of EVs. More than half of American respondents say they are at least somewhat knowledgeable about EVs, with 11% extremely or very knowledgeable. Among potential first movers, 37% rate themselves as extremely or very knowledgeable about EVs. For roughly 90% of respondent's convenience to charge, range, and cost to charge are all extremely or very important electric vehicle (EV) considerations. The vast majority of respondents have requirements that are not currently met by pure EVs in the market today, including range of up to 300 miles (63% of respondents; charging time of two hours or less (60% of respondents; and widespread availability of public charging stations (53 to 77% of respondents). Potential first movers in buying or leasing an EV in America describe themselves as environmentally conscious, tech savvy, trendsetters and politically active. These early adopters are generally between the ages of 18 to 34 years old (59%), educated (38%) with a bachelor's degree or higher, male (60%), and affluent (43% have incomes greater than $50,000). Most American consumers surveyed rate EVs as better than ICEs in their impact on the environment (78%), availability of government incentives (66%), and cost to operate (60%). However, ICEs rate better in their range before refueling or recharging (59%), purchase price (58%), and convenience to refill or recharge (56%). The most common perception is EVs are "green and clean" (72%) yet expensive to buy (71%). Of the total expected time U.S. respondents say they would be driving an electric vehicle, most are likely to use an EV for commuting to work (average 37% of expected driving time) or for short local trips (average 25% of expected driving time). More than half (60%) of U.S. respondents say two hours or less is the longest amount of time they would be willing to wait to fully recharge the battery if they were to purchase an EV. While only 23% of respondents find eight hours of charge time acceptable. The Full Useful Life of the battery as well as ease and cost of switching batteries are important factors to U.S. consumers as they begin to contemplate the total cost of ownership. EVs "are plausible because they are already in the market. They are feasible because you can charge them up overnight at your house," Michael Omotoso, senior manager for global powertrain at J.D. Power & Associates, told the Tribune. But "we expect commercial success to be very limited for the first 10 years, because we don't have the infrastructure yet."
A J.D. Power study in October titled "Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality?" found that future global demand for hybrid and battery EVs vehicles "may be overhyped."
It estimated that only 20,000 of the 12.5 million vehicles expected to be sold in the United States this year will be pure battery-driven EVs. That number has since been reduced to 15,000. (Nissan sold 452 Leafs through the end of March.) J.D. Power expects 12,000 plug-in hybrid vehicle sales this year. (Through the end of March, Chevrolet sold 1,210 Volts.)
A February report--"Plug-in Electric Vehicles: A Practical Plan for Progress," by a panel working with Indiana University--noted that without another global spike in oil prices, consumer demand might be limited to enthusiastic early technology adopters and relatively affluent city dwellers because of uncertainties about the new technology.
Early adopters who were the first to buy conventional hybrids 10 years ago will be the first to buy EVs and plug-ins, Omotoso said. He said he thinks it will be more than 10 years before mainstream buyers start buying EVs and plug-ins.
Adding more models in more segments should help increase sales of EVs, much the way it did with conventional hybrids, Omotoso said.
A study undertaken by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., estimated sales of EVs, plug-ins and fuel-cell vehicles will nearly double, from 77,000 in 2012 to 140,000 in 2015.
A Consumer Reports survey late last year summed up some of the concerns of those mainstream buyers; 94% of the 1,713 adult vehicle owners surveyed by Consumer Reports National Research Center found EVs and hybrids lacking in some way. Of those surveyed, 66% cited a high purchase price as the chief disadvantage; 60% were worried about inadequate refueling or recharging infrastructure; and 58% worried about limited driving range.
Tthe all-electric Leaf can go 100 miles on a single charge. Consumer Reports' April issue, though, found the range severely restricted by electric heaters that eat up kilowatts during cold weather. During a cold snap, the magazine reported, the Leaf averaged 65 miles on a single charge. The Volt is more flexible. It gets 25 to 50 miles on a single electric charge before a gasoline-powered generator provides electricity to power the wheels for an additional 300 miles.
When it comes to the infrastructure to recharge vehicles, Omotoso said: "We have 160,000 gas stations across the country, but there are fewer than 1,000 public charging stations."
When it comes to cost, of the handful of EVs for sale, one is the $100,000 Tesla Roadster; others are the $41,000 Volt and the $33,630 Leaf. A maximum $7,500 federal tax credit helps bring costs down, and there is talk about turning it into a rebate that consumers get immediately at purchase instead of waiting until tax time, said the report. Incentives are scheduled to end after the first 200,000 electric vehicles are sold, but proposals to increase that to 500,000 vehicles are out there.
But changes are also taking place in gasoline engine and transmission technology, which are improving fuel economy at a much lower cost than EVs, Omotoso said.
Given all the market uncertainty, how realistic is meeting the goal of 1 million green vehicles by 2015, the Tribune asked? J.D. Power's forecast is 700,000 or 750,000. The Indiana University study said it is unlikely, given automakers' current production plans. But the panel thought it could happen within a few years after that.
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