James Johnson’s message should have upset his predominantly conservative, middle-aged white male audience of roughly 500 convenience executives at the summit, except that his delivery of wit and wisdom had attendees both laughing and pondering.
He spoke about race, about illegal immigrants, about age. In short, it’s not good news for the white male baby boomer.
His presentation was an erudite list of observations and challenges confronting a country too often intoxicated by trivial babble from both left- and right-wing media.
Professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at the University of North Carolina, Johnson delivered a wildly entertaining presentation titled “Disruptive Demographics.”
And his message was indeed disruptive, but it also was replete with opportunity. Johnson believes the United States is undergoing six critical changes of demography that will ultimately affect governmental priorities and business strategies.
The Silver Tsunami
“I turned 60 this year,” he said. And yes, we’ve all heard that 60 is the new 30. However, he said: “Let me tell you: 60 is 60.”
The audience totally got it. Those born from 1946 to 1964 make up more than one-fourth of the nation. Not growing is the 25- to 44-year-old population; it’s actually in decline. The youth of America is not being served, at least not by government census information. With the graying of our country, attitudes and policies have to change, Johnson said.
“This is why you can’t be anti-immigration. Why? Because immigrants are young people,” and they will contribute to both our economy and Social Security, he said.
Succession Plan: In what he described as “knowledge succession,” Johnson said it’s important for the baby-boomer generation to loosen the reins of power, to gradually empower the next generation to help ensure long-term business prosperity.
Elder Care: Child care may capture headlines, but it’s predictable and relatively short-term: baby, diapers, teething, then school. Elder care is much trickier.
Johnson cited his own experience, during which not long ago he had six relatives ages 84 to 97 who required attention: late-night calls, early-morning errands, midday health concerns. “You’ll have to figure out how to squeeze work in,” he said.
These interruptions, he said, are causing a $40 billion annual loss in business opportunities.
HR: This challenge will necessitate a more flexible human-resource policy, one that is agile and nimble to meet the needs of workers trying to juggle caring for both their children and their parents.
The ‘Browning of America’ From 1921 through 1960, America’s immigrants arrived mainly from Europe. These immigrants were mostly white and preserved the country’s racial breakdown. And it was no accident.
“We operated an immigration system that was geographically discriminating,” Johnson said, citing low numbers of immigrants from Asian or African countries.
That all changed Oct. 3, 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson signed the Hart-Celler Immigration Bill. The measure phased out the national origins quota system and formed the bulk of today’s immigration law.
Under the old system, 70% of all immigrant slots were divided among three countries: United Kingdom, Ireland and Germany. Today, immigrants are largely arriving from Latin America, Africa, Asia, Central America and across U.S. borders.
Illegal Immigration: Here’s where Johnson was at his contrarian best. Immigration, he said, is “where people get their body parts out of joint.” And true, illegal immigration—with ranges of 7 million to 15 million but which Johnson estimated is about 11.5 million—is a legitimate concern.
But, he emphasized, those focusing on Hispanics or heightened border security to control the flow of illegals are ignoring the significantly larger issue.
Most illegal immigrants, Johnson said, are not entering the United States illegally. Students, workers, even some of the terrorists of Sept. 11 came with short-term visas and did not leave when their visa expired.
“What do you call a person on the 91st day of a 90-day visa? A visa ‘overstayer,’ ” he said. These people make up most of the country’s illegal immigrants.
“We’re not having an honest conversation about illegal immigration in America,” he said. “Don’t fall into the trap.”
The Reality: More than 40 million people in the United States are foreign-born, he said, led by Hispanics (46.5%) and Asian (nearly 19%).
And guess what? Most of them are young and will do what young couples are expected to ultimately do: have children. In short, America may be engaged in a fruitless generational war in which aging white men are fighting the reality that the country’s racial profile is changing.
Marrying Out Is In
Interracial marriages are adding to the increase in the “browning of America,” Johnson said. But these interracial marriages are not just black and white. Indeed, that combination ranks fifth in the racial blending.
From 1980 to 2008, nearly 15% of all marriages involved a man and woman of different skin color. The top five are Hispanic/white (41%), Asian/white (18%), two or more races (17%), both non-whites (16%) and then black and white. The “two or more races” refers to people who identify themselves as more than one race.
Shifting Demographics: In 2011, for the first time, whites made up less than 50% of new births.
Here to Stay: Retailers and suppliers will continue to market toward the multiracial couple. Johnson cited the Cheerios commercial that first featured a child of a mixed-race couple and then a follow-up commercial of a newborn.
While some may not like the trend, companies that cater to this reality stand to capture greater loyalty, he said.
CONTINUED: The South Rises Again
The South Has Risen Again
A native of the South, Johnson touched on the contrast between the past and present. Before, “it was a place to leave, as opposed to a place to live,” he said.
Through 1970, only 30% of what he called the net population share of change came in the South. “Then something profound occurred,” he said.
More families started to leave the Northeast and Midwest and move to the South and West Coast. And from 2000 to 2009, the South accounted for more than half of the country’s population growth.
“It’s all about migration and immigration,” said Johnson.
States of Growth: In truth, not all of the South is enjoying sizzling population growth. Four states—North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas—represent 71% of the South’s growth, with Virginia in more recent years spiking thanks to Northern Virginia.
Regional Increases: From 2000 to 2009, the U.S. population grew by 24.8 million people, more than half of which was in the South (51.4%). The West picked up 32.7% population growth, and the Northeast and the Midwest increased 6.5% and 9.4%, respectively.
Economic Swings: Some states, such as Arizona and Florida, enjoyed major housing booms in the 1990s through the first half of the 2000s. The Great Recession changed and overturned portfolios of many retirees, especially those who had retired to Florida.
Those folks now, he said, “are the newly unretired.”
The End of Men?
Know why there are so many intelligent, capable women who are not married? Because there are not enough intelligent, capable men to go around, Johnson said.
The graduating college class of 2010, for example, boasted 1.9 million female graduates compared to only 1.4 million male graduates—a whopping differential of 500,000.
Of that breakdown, 244,000 more women earned a bachelor’s degree, and 134,000 more women obtained a master’s degree.
Future Leaders: While pay gaps have narrowed, women continue to earn about 82 cents for every $1 a man earns in the same position. Recruiting and rewarding women leaders will position businesses to better compete in the long term.
Taking Over: Women soon will represent the majority of the U.S. workforce. That’s because men have been more adversely affected as the U.S. economy has moved away from an industrial manufacturing base.
Here Come the Boomers
So America is graying and relying more on young immigrants to grow the economic pie. Paralleling these factors has been the increase of grandparent-led households. From 2001 to 2010, the number of children being raised in grandparent-headed households skyrocketed. Many of these grandparents, Johnson said, are ages 30 to 50.
What Johnson suggested is that the reality of America is complex, its workforce diverse and tending to multiple family needs.
And what about the much-heralded millennial? Not so fast, Johnson said. Yes, the young are rising and are super-tech-savvy. But more than 54% of millennials are underemployed or unemployment, up from 41% in 2000, he said.
And you know what that means: They’re living at home. “We call them ‘boomerang crumb snatchers,’ ” he said.
Conversely, baby boomers are healthier than previous generations, spending more money and being engaged in the world of Facebook and smartphones. They also are hypersensitive about being considered old.
The boomers, he said, are “the last generation that’s got any money.”
To maximize this group’s deep wallets, Johnson asked operators if their stores are boomer-friendly. Are your aisles wider and shelving lower? Are labels easy to read, products easy to carry and chairs built with armrests?
Vancouver, B.C., for example, recently banned doorknobs on new construction. Why? They’re too hard to turn for those whose joints are arthritic and aging. So while America may be aging, its mindset aims to stay young.
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.