LOUISVILLE, Colo. — Cannabis sales in 2022 will surpass $35 billion worldwide, a rise of about 22% over 2021 sales of $29 billion, according to cannabinoid-industry research firm BDSA’s new five-year rolling market forecast update.
BDSA forecasts global cannabis sales will surpass $61 billion in 2026, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 16%.
“Though most legal cannabis markets saw sales soften in the second half of 2021, the global cannabis market is expected to see brisk growth in 2022, driven by strong sales in new and emerging markets in the U.S., steady growth in Canada and international markets lead by Mexico and Germany,” said Jessica Lukas, chief commercial officer at BDSA.
In 2021, new markets in the U.S. experienced some of the strongest growth, especially in the Midwest. Illinois sales grew about 70% in 2021, totaling $1.8 billion, while Missouri’s medical-only market reached an unexpected high of $210 million, BDSA said.
Emerging markets are also expected to be a major driver of sales through 2026 as the number of non-legal states is decreases quickly. The pace of legalization could even increase as the latest wave of medical and adult-use bills are see unprecedented bipartisan support at the state level.
Highlights from BDSA:
- In the United States, legal cannabis sales will surpass $28 billion in 2022, growth of about 20% over 2021’s $24 billion. BDSA forecasts U.S. sales to reach $46 billion in 2026, a CAGR of about 14% from 2021. California, which launched its adult-use market in 2018, will remain the largest contributor to overall U.S. sales growth. Several other markets are expected to be major contributors to total U.S. legal sales by 2026, with the next top four contributors to growth being New York, New Jersey, Florida and Michigan.
- In Canada, legal cannabis sales in reached about $3.8 billion in 2021 and are projected to grow to $4.7 billion in 2022 and about $6.3 billion by 2026, a CAGR of 11% from 2021. Ontario is expected to spearhead this growth, with this province growing more than $1.3 billion by 2026. British Columbia also be a leading contributor, adding $420 million to total sales by 2026.
- In other international markets, sales of legal cannabis products, including cannabis-derived pharmaceuticals, outside the United States and Canada were estimated at $1.4 billion in spending for 2021 and are forecast to grow to $2.2 billion in 2022. International sales are expected to reach $9.5 billion by 2026, a CAGR of about 46% from 2021. Most of that new spending will be driven by Germany and Mexico, though France and the United Kingdom will contribute significantly as well.
Louisville, Colo-based BDSA helps businesses improve revenues, reduce innovation risk and prioritize market expansion with accurate and actionable cannabis market intelligence, consumer research and advisory services. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by generating insights from point-of-sale (POS) data, wholesale data, consumer research and market forecasts.
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