Spring blossoms presented a fascinating façade masking a gloomy uncertainty I’ve not seen in my 27 years covering the convenience industry.
President Donald Trump’s tariffs—a post-April Fool’s Day release—had even many of the most emboldened conservatives concerned—and for good reason. In just 48 hours, more than $2.3 trillion in wealth was wiped out. And a slew of companies across tech and manufacturing announced layoffs and a self-made crisis seemed to be unfolding.
“Our NTIs are in jeopardy,” one retail executive said, referring to new-to-industry stores. “Fewer construction workers due to enhanced deportations, fewer roofers, fewer electricians, much higher construction costs. Net result—fewer new stores.”
The CEO of a Top 20 convenience-store chain was more tempered. “I think you have to wait and see how this is going to play over months, not days,” he said. “We know the financial markets are concerned and, if this persists, I would expect President Trump to adjust his strategy rather than let the U.S. economy—and potentially the global economy—collapse.”
On April 4, the usually understated Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed caution as to how the Central Bank would respond.
“While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” and the economic fallout of higher prices and slower growth is also likely to be larger than expected, he said.
A Tough First Quarter
Tariffs were only part of the story. According to Placer.ai, c-store traffic lagged year-over-year through the first few months of 2025.
Adding more pain, The Conference Board reported the lowest score in consumer confidence in 12 years, falling a precipitous 7.2 points in March to 92.9. As a general rule, 100 to 110 is considered stable.
For good news, employment grew impressively in March, adding 228,000 new jobs and far exceeding analysts’ expectations.
But in conversations with more than a dozen retail executives from late February through early April, nearly all expressed growing concerns, from potential labor and consumer fallout, especially in large Hispanic populations due to fear of deportations, to a new wave of inflation spurred by tariffs and a global trade war.
As one major operator noted, “Between ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] deportations, fear of deportations, tariffs and perceptions that if you’re not a native, that you’re not welcomed here. These have hit some of our stores, particularly with large Hispanic populations, really hard.”
So, What Are We Going to Do?
Let’s take a worst-case scenario and say consumer confidence continues to fall, some level of tariffs stay with us for months, and uncertainty reigns along some critical federal departments like the Center for Tobacco Products, which underwent draconian cuts, including the removal of Director Brian King on April 1.
“We have to focus and control what we can control,” a leading executive of a Top 30 chain told me. “I’m starting to think that beer, some snacks and overall costs are going to go up. This is tough as it’s coming after several years of compounded inflation.
“But as long as the playing field is even, we will do what we can to give value to our consumers, to perhaps lean a bit more into loss leaders and work with our vendor partners to help us with more exclusive deals.”
Another retailer was less alarmed overall. “Think about the past handful of years. We’ve had COVID, high inflation, high mortgage rates. I could go on. But what I’ve concluded is the consumer is resilient,” he said. “Yes, I think 2025 is going to be a harder year than we had forecasted. But big picture, I think we as a channel will be all right.”
Mitch Morrison is vice president of retailer relations at Informa Connect. Reach him at mitch.morrison@informa.com.
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