WASHINGTON -- U.S. households in 2015 could pay the least amount of money for gasoline in more than a decade. An analysis by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) found that the average household expenditure on gasoline this year should be around $1,817, which is around $700 less than in 2014.
EIA crunched numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES), which tracks U.S. household spending, to help calculate the gasoline savings. According to the analysis, two-person households make up the largest share of households—or one-third—and have an annual gasoline expenditure closest to the average. Households with five or more people spend between 40% and 50% more on gasoline each year than two-person households, while one-person households spend about 50% less.
EIA used projected gasoline prices from its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) to determine that annual gasoline expenditures should fall from $2,513 in 2014 to $1,817 in 2015. They are then set to jump 13% in 2016 to hit $2,058.
The STEO projects that the annual average retail price for regular gasoline should be 96 cents per gallon (CPG) lower in 2015 than in 2014. While the 2015 monthly average has risen from $2.12 per gallon for January to $2.46 per gallon in March, EIA expects the annual average to still end up around $2.40 per gallon versus $3.36 per gallon in 2014.
Beyond lower gasoline prices, EIA cites greater vehicle fuel economy and falling vehicle miles traveled as factors behind the lower expenditures. The longer-term trend for expenditures has been up and down. For example, between 2003 and 2008, the average annual expenditure increased each year by about 15% to hit $2,715 by 2008. In 2009, the recession, with its reduced consumption and lower prices, dropped expenditures by 27%. After annual increases through 2012, expenditures then dropped in 2013 and 2014.
In a separate analysis, EIA found variation in travel expenditures based on the region where consumers live and their incomes. For 2013, the most recent year of CES data available, the average U.S. household spent $3,148 on gasoline and public transit. EIA found at most a $200 difference between regions with the highest and lowest travel expenditures. The biggest determinants of who paid the least and the most each year on gasoline: the number of vehicles per household, income and expenditures on public transportation.
According to the analysis, the South spends the most on gasoline than other regions, and the least on public transit. The Northeast, meanwhile, spends the most on public transit and least on gasoline. The South also has a higher number of vehicles per household than the Northeast, or 2.1 compared to 1.6 for the Northeast (the national average is 1.9).
Meanwhile, the highest-income households spent nearly four times as much as lowest-income households on recurring travel expenditures. The CES divides households into quintiles by income. The highest-income quintile—those households making at least $95,000—spent more than $4,000 on gasoline in 2013. The lowest-income quintile, or those making less than $18,000 per year, spent around $1,200. The highest quintile also had more vehicles, or 2.8 per household versus 0.9 for lowest-quintile households.
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