Always barring a world oil supply disaster, no big oil price hike is likely. In fact, with OPEC happily overproducing (the Saudi Arabian oil minister stated, "We are very happy," and called current prices "beautiful") keeping [image-nocss] oil prices lower than they otherwise would be, and world oil demand unimpressive (and with seasonal oil demand about to shrink as usual), it is unlikely.
Is OPEC, having just determined no change in output target, about to clamp down on itself and bring its half-compliance with its own official production cuts up toward 100%? There isn't any reasonable expectation of that. As for demand, neither world nor U.S. demand for crude or refined products is about to surge.
Even if U.S. gasoline demand were to ratchet up from a hoped-for comeback for employment, some 20% of U.S. refining capacity would be only too happy to jump back in and add to supply. If, somehow, that weren't enough to swamp a price spike, gasoline exporters would smell profits and send over more gallons.
If crude stays close to $81 per barrel, then a few more cents at the pump may be on their way from continued crude oil price pass-through and perhaps from downstream margin improvements (refiner and retailer gasoline margins remain low). But no spike. The U.S. average retail regular grade price would have to be kicked up by another $8 per barrel in crude, or by "beautiful" refiner and retailer profit expansions, just to touch $3 per gallon.
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