"While Americans remain cautious with household budgets and discretionary spending amidst high levels of unemployment, many are in a better financial position this Thanksgiving than [image-nocss] a year ago," said AAA president and CEO Robert L. Darbelnet. "This improvement, along with a strong desire to spend time with friends and family, is expected to propel a significant increase in Thanksgiving travel."
The forecasted double-digit increase in Thanksgiving holiday travel would signify an important upturn in travel volume for the holiday after a year of negligible growth in 2009 (0.2%) and two years after a historic 25.2% decline in travel in 2008. While the forecast for an 11.4% increase in Thanksgiving travel is significant, the increase in the number of travelers by 4.3 million is less than half of the volume lost from 2007 through 2009. Moreover, this year's expected 42.2 million travelers remain almost 30% below the 2005 peak of 58.6 million travelers.
This year's projected increase in holiday travel appears to be the result of modestly improved economic conditions since last year, including an increase in gross domestic product, real disposable personal income and household net worth combined with a decrease in consumer debt. While job growth has been minimal and unemployment remains high, the unemployment rate has remained stable, which is an improvement from 2008 and 2009 when job losses were mounting each quarter.
Trips by automobile remain the dominant mode of transportation for holiday travel with 94% of travelers, or 39.7 million people, reaching their destination by driving. This is an increase of 12% from last Thanksgiving when 35.5 million Americans reached their destination by motor vehicle.
AAA expects the national average price for a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline to remain between $2.85 and $2.95 during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period.
Leisure air travel is expected to account for 4% of overall travel with 1.62 million holiday flyers, an increase of 3.5% from last year's 1.57 million flyers. Trips by other modes, including rail, bus and watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by 2% of all travelers.
Lower household income and younger age groups tend to be more sensitive to economic downturns and, therefore, retracted more during the recession than older and higher household income groups. As the economy improves, individuals across the board benefit. Results from the survey of intended travelers reveal that the share of expected travelers in the under $50,000 household income bracket has risen from 40.4% in 2009 to 41.5% in 2010, and the share of intending travelers in the 18 to 34 year old category has increased from 28.1% in 2009 to 30.5% in 2010.
Based on a survey of traveler intentions, the average distance traveled by Americans this Thanksgiving holiday is expected to be 816 miles, virtually the same as one year ago (815 miles). Median spending is expected to be $495, roughly the same as last year when median spending was $494. Thanksgiving travel tends to be less expensive compared to other travel holidays because of its emphasis on the Thanksgiving meal and the gathering of friends and family. A majority of survey respondents (82%) reported that the main purpose of their upcoming trip was a visit with friends or family.
AAA's projections are based on economic forecasting and research by Boston-based IHS Global Insight. Miami-based AAA has been reporting on holiday travel trends for more than two decades. The complete AAA/IHS Global Insight 2010 Thanksgiving holiday forecast can be found at AAA.com/news.
As North America's largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 52 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, the not-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for the safety and security of all travelers.
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.