As President Donald Trump takes office, here are some critical issues for convenience stores and how the new administration may affect them.
Biden, California and the EV Mandate
California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a measure that would ban the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035. It’s been highly controversial and is more stringent than federal dictates.
In its final days in the White House, the Biden administration granted California a waiver, meaning that under the Clean Air Act, California can receive a waiver from the Environmental Protection Agency to set tougher vehicle emissions rules than those of the federal government. More than a dozen other states have historically followed California’s stricter rules, collectively accounting for approximately 40% of the U.S. auto market.
We expect the Trump administration to revoke the waiver, but the matter won’t end there. California has been setting aside funds to litigate this matter. The one uncertainty is whether the state will be able to proceed with its intentions pending a court ruling, or if it will be required to abide by federal standards.
This is a serious issue for automakers, who, unlike presidential elections, plan out five to 10 years at a time—not four-year cycles. It’s also a major concern for how California-based convenience chains like United Pacific, Loop Neighborhood, Rotten Robbie, ampm and countless others will design their future forecourts.
Expect this to ultimately make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court most likely by 2026 or 2027.
E15: Year-Round or Continued Waiver Game?
In recent years a diverse group of c-stores, biofuel activists and farmers have pushed to legalize E15 nationwide year-round.
What has become an annual rite is for the EPA to grant a waiver during the summer months for retailers in Midwestern states to continue selling E15. This was largely due to high pump prices when motorists across the country were paying $4 and above, and more than $6 in California and parts of Washington state. In general, ethanol-based stock would save motorists $0.10 to $0.25 per gallon.
Groups like SIGMA, NACS, NATO, Growth Energy, RFA and others have argued to eliminate the annual waiver process and allow the sale of E15 year-round.
A U.S. government funding bill released in mid-December included a plan that would have permitted just that—a win for corn and ethanol lobbies.
But the measure was nixed along with that version of the spending bill when Elon Musk publicly opposed it, prompting then president-elect Trump to reject it as well. The argument put forth by Musk was that the spending package should eliminate special interest projects, and making E15 year-round was considered as such.
In a recent report to fuel marketers, SIGMA’s lobbying team expressed cautious optimism:
“Moving forward, the hope is that we will be able to continue building on the momentum we generated late last year and get something through Congress in short order. There is also a non-zero possibility that E15 will be politically “tainted” as a “pork” item that was removed from the spending package, creating a new political obstacle for the effort.”
In other words, let’s hope we don’t find E15 grants and year-round waivers on Elon Musk’s DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] list.
At the Pump: EV Chargers, E15 Blends
The sweeping Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included some incentives relevant to the convenience community. Notably, as part of $370 billion to combat climate change, the IRA included:
- A $7,500 tax credit to purchase an electric vehicle.
- Federal tax credit of up to 30% for businesses that install EV chargers through 2032.
- A $7.5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) grant program. The fund diverts grant money to states and is awarded to companies installing EV chargers.
- $500 million for biofuels infrastructure, which was reportedly expected to add 10,000 E15 pumps.
Trump stated multiple times during the election campaign and after his victory that he would eliminate all EV-related tax incentives and programs. He is likely to face resistance from some conservative-leaning states like Georgia and North Carolina, which are home to EV factories and have benefitted from the inflation reduction act.
As for the biofuel incentives, sources among the biofuel advocates have raised concerns that allocated funds could be slashed and repurposed to help Trump’s preference in fossil fuel production.
Not Your Ordinary Café
No coffee at this café. CAFE here means Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, of CAFE standards. They regulate the amount of fuel used by cars and trucks.
Trump has hinted that he would likely seek to weaken CAFE standards, which have improved fuel efficiency and have been tolerated by automakers. In 2023, average fuel economy across all vehicles was 27 miles per gallon, more than double what it was in 1975
In 2023, average fuel economy across all vehicles was 27 miles per gallon—more than double what it was in 1975, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
In 2024, the Biden administration increased the aim to bring average fuel economy to 50.4 miles per gallon in model year 2031, a goal Trump is expected to lower. What is unclear is the precise standards the Trump administration will support and if automakers will even care as they pursue longer-term investments.