SAN FRANCISCO -- Listening to a group of more than 100 convenience-store retailers, automotive manufacturers, government leaders, equipment suppliers and other key players hash out the big issues of fuel is a true education. I had just that opportunity at the recent Fuels Institute Annual Meeting in San Francisco, where the Alexandria, Va.-based NACS-affiliated group brought together a record number of attendees for a three-day discussion of the future of fuels.
And as informative as the many presentations and experts were, I'd argue that the big unanswered questions were just as fascinating.
Here are four big questions our industry will be grappling with in the years to come:
1. Will autonomous vehicles boost fuel sales or bust them?
Fully autonomous vehicles have the potential to revolutionize transportation, but industry experts are wildly uncertain about what impact they will have on fuel consumption.
On the boost side of the argument: Multiple people will be sharing one vehicle, increasing its vehicle miles traveled and by that logic, the amount of fuel it will need. Assuming autonomous driving begins to take over, total fuel consumption could actually grow. A model for this would be the impact of computers on printing; despite fears that computers would kill the printing industry, they actually proved to be a boon, as people felt the urge to print out all of the documents.
On the bust side of the argument: For each autonomous vehicle, shared by multiple people, several other vehicles disappear from the road, ultimately denting total fuel consumption.
2. When is a government mandate needed, and when is it a nuisance?
Consider the case of Top Tier gasoline, the voluntary standard launched in 2004 by several of the top automakers for detergent content. The purpose, at the time, was to ensure fuel quality and vehicle performance as engine technology advanced. Previously, detergent levels varied from none to a noticeable, and engines getting no detergent suffered.
A dozen years later, about 65% of fuel sold in the United States and Canada is Top Tier certified, with more than 30 large chains participating in the program, representing 35% of retail sites.
But for the 35% of sites that do not sell Top Tier fuel, does this make their gasoline "bad"?
Should EPA raise its current minimum detergent standard so that all fuel retailers meet a better quality threshold? Or is a voluntary program inherently more nimble and effective?
There are convincing arguments for both.
3. How can automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), fuel retailers and the government work together better?
Clear communication and partnership between these three main players are critical to the success of any effort to change transportation for the better. But often, it's just not there, driven by differing motives and sometimes distrust.
The seemingly inevitable transition toward midlevel ethanol blends provides a key opportunity to give everybody what they want—help the government cut greenhouse gas emissions by improving fleet fuel economy, help OEMs meet fuel economy standards and help retailers profitably sell the fuel.
4. Why does change to the transportation infrastructure have to be so complicated?
At the meeting, three teams of university students presented their ideas for the future of transportation in the United States. All of the proposals were bold and ambitious, and they were optimistic about the speed at which these big, transformative changes would take place. But despite the many benefits of the proposals—lowered greenhouse gas emissions, more efficient travel—in the real world, they would run into the buzz saw of political interests, cost concerns and liability issues that make even the most modest change to transportation fuels so difficult. With so much at stake, does it need to be that way?
Despite these big unanswered questions, the meeting is a rare opportunity to get all of the stakeholders in one room to hash out the possibilities. It leaves you feeling realistic—but optimistic—that positive change is within reach, provided everyone has the will to make it happen.
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.