The U.S. average retail price of regular-grade gasoline rose 10.5 cents per gallon (CPG) in the past two weeks, to $3.31, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Wholesale bumped up more than that, delivering a gasoline margin loss to retailers of 2.8 cents.
Margin currently sits at 29.4 CPG for regular. Recovery of that, and maybe more than that, is a possibility near term.
The average retail price is a discount of 22 CPG under its year-ago point.
Gasoline stocks aren’t super abundant, but U.S. refiners have again increased their capacity utilization rate, now reaching an aggregate 94.7%. That, and the prospects for deep wholesale gasoline price cuts thanks to dramatic oil price developments, bodes well for plenty of gasoline and lower prices as the summer driving season gets underway.
Oil price volatility in the extreme was apparent from June 12 on, when Israel’s Friday, June 13, attacks on Iran began, upping West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closing price by $4.94 per barrel to $72.98 per barrel. It reached its high of $75.14 per barrel on June 18. As in the past, Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize.
After a small, one-day dip in the WTI price on June 20 to $74.93, the weekend brought Operation Midnight Hammer with the U.S. attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities just before midnight June 21.
At futures market close on Monday, June 23, WTI was down $6.24 per barrel from the day before to $68.51. The ceasefire declared on June 24 saw WTI close a big step down to $64.37 per barrel.
The June 27 WTI price is $7.59 below what it was on June 13. If that were gasoline in gallons, it would be a drop of just over 18 cents.
Lundberg daily wholesale gasoline price surveys by buying class in all markets show massive down corrections around the country in the past week, some in the range of 20-26 CPG.
If the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, then passthrough of lower oil prices alone may allow a pump price cut exceeding a dime.
Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Surveyof U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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