In the past two weeks, the national average regular-grade pump price rose by 1.9 cents per gallon (CPG) to $3.237, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Right now, there are reasons to expect that this may reverse, with an equal or greater pump price cut.
Since wholesale price rises occurred more than that, retailers lost another little piece of their heart, this time 0.6 CPG in retail margin. It was a shallower piercing than the loss of 2.4 cents in margin between early- and mid-July. Current apparent margin: a not fun but not terrible 32.9 cents.
The refining sector, while not currently in dire straits as to gasoline margin, is pushing its capacity use rate toward maximum: The aggregate utilization rate has jumped 1.4 percentage points to 96.9%. The whole downstream portion of the U.S. petroleum industry is pursuing the object of its affections, American motorists.
But motorists aren't having it. Gasoline demand is still in shrink mode. Lundberg projects a loss of 0.7% in national gasoline demand for full-year 2025.
Wholesale prices have been comparatively stable in recent weeks following comparatively stable oil prices. The oil and fuel markets appear rather calm, without extreme disruption so far from petro-politics, world trade tariffs, upcoming efforts in a U.S.-Russia “summit” for peace in Ukraine, weather events and a clearly possible future diesel fuel/distillates world supply crunch that can ripple though all cuts of the barrel.
In latest days, even racks have looked peaceful. Most peaceful was the Gulf Coast, where the regional average unbranded price was $1.9787 on July 25, up microscopically to $1.9794 on August 8. In the Midwest, the average branded rack edged up a tiny 0.23 CPG in the same two-week period.
Short term, if neither oil prices nor gasoline supplies change significantly, we may still see pump price slippage, maybe 5-10 cents, thanks at least in part to refiners and retailers seeking sales volumes.
Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.