The national average retail price of regular grade gasoline dropped a further 9.9 cents per gallon in the past three weeks. The new price, $2.893 per gallon, is down 27 cents in the past seven weeks alone.
Compared with last year's high price point into early April, the current price is 45 cents per gallon lower. Versus one year ago, the price is a discount of 24 cents.
But unfolding scenes in several oil producing nations have added some supply risk premium to crude oil prices. West Texas intermediate's near-month futures contract closed at $59.12 per barrel on Jan. 9, an increase of $2.46 pe barrel, the equivalent of nearly 6 cents per gallon, higher than its price of three weeks ago.
Unknowns concerning the speed and degree of any comebacks in Venezuelan oil sales and production are joined by the growing public protests in Iran against the dangers of regime retaliation, and the possibility of a new and more severe U.S. tariff upon sales of sanctioned Russian oil, plus the lack of progress in efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, have hiked oil prices beyond what they otherwise would have been.
Unless one or more of the global unknowns adding to oil's supply risk price premium should appear more benign quickly, it is likely that gasoline price cutting will soon cease and possibly bring increases. If oil price increases are substantial and sustained, gasoline prices will respond by climbing.
Meanwhile gasoline stocks are now far higher, and U.S. refiners continue to utilize capacity at a high rate of 94.7%.
Retailers now garner on average a still handsome regular grade margin of 40.3 cents, after losing 8.3 cents in the past three weeks. Retail price, wholesale price and retail margin all declined. The only winner was the gasoline tax man, made up of federal, state, local and sales taxes weighted and combined, rose three tenths of a cent.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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