The American Automobile Association (AAA) is forecasting an estimated 45.1 million Americans are planning to travel at least 50 miles from home during Memorial Day weekend, between May 22 and May 26. This is a 1.4 million increase over last year and surpasses the previous record set in 2005 of 44 million travelers.
Approximately 39.4 million of those travelers, 87%, are expected to travel via car. The surge is attributed to lower gas prices, AAA said, which have decreased from a national average of $3.59 per gallon last year to $3.14 this spring due to reduced crude oil prices. However, AAA advises that prices may rise as summer approaches.
“Memorial Day weekend getaways don’t have to be extravagant and costly,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “While some travelers embark on dream vacations and fly hundreds of miles across the country, many families just pack up the car and drive to the beach or take a road trip to visit friends. Long holiday weekends are ideal for travel because many people have an extra day off work and students are off from school.”
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects the afternoons over Memorial Day weekend to be the most congested. Travelers should hit the road during the morning hours. Boston, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. are the metros that can expect the heaviest traffic.
In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which serves as the base case for the analysis, EIA forecasted that summer regular retail gasoline prices will average $3.14 per gallon over the second and third quarter of 2025, down 9% from the same period last year.
California Tensions
However, gasoline prices in California could rise above $8 per gallon by the end of 2026, according to a report by Michael A. Mische of the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business.
This is expected due to the closure of two California oil refineries, a Phillips 66 refinery in Los Angeles and a Valero refinery in Benicia.
Overall prices could reach more than $6 per gallon by the end of this year after the Phillips 66 refinery closure in October, the study projected, before continuing to rise to more than $8 by the end of 2026 after the Valero refinery closure.
California is confronting a potential 21% reduction in collective refining capacity from 2023 to April 2026, with a gasoline deficit ranging from 6.6 million to 13.1 million gallons a day.
“California’s consumption of gasoline, which has declined by 11% since 2001, is not expected to suddenly drop by 20% in the next twelve months to achieve equilibrium with the shortfall of in-state gasoline production,” the report said.
In response to the study last week, California state Senate Minority Leader Brian W. Jones, R-San Diego, sent a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom urging immediate action to halt the refinery shutdowns.
“If the Governor doesn’t act now, Californians will be blindsided by sticker shock at the pump and skyrocketing prices on everyday goods,” said Jones in his letter. “We’re talking about gas prices over $8.43 per gallon by the end of next year.”
These reductions won’t just impact fuel prices, they will also affect production, costs and prices across many industries such as air travel, food delivery, agricultural production, manufacturing, electrical power generation, distribution, groceries and healthcare, the report said.
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.