The national average retail price of regular-grade gasoline moved up a small 1.39 cents per gallon (CPG) in the past two weeks, to $3.2088, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets.
It's snail's pace versus the 6-cent hike in the prior two-week period.
Since Jan. 24, the near-month futures price of the main U.S. crude oil benchmark-grade West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by $3.66 per barrel, settling at $71.00. This was a down correction from the elevated levels of days earlier when the Trump administration unveiled its plans to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, and to exert maximum pressure on Iran.
In particular, the proposed tariff on oil exported to the U.S. from Canada riled the U.S. market for our refiners' reliance on heavy oil for some plans which yield high volumes of distillates. Heating oil and diesel prices specifically were bumped higher.
As dialogues with those nations ensued and as Russia and Iran each expressed some interest in negotiating on specific issues with the U.S., some of the risk premium embedded within oil prices dissipated. And the stronger U.S. dollar gave support to oil prices receding.
In the past nine weeks, the U.S. pump price is up 10.37 cents.
Also, since Dec. 6, the national average retail margin on regular-grade gasoline has declined by 11.97 cents. Current retail margin now averages 30.66 cents.
Refiner margins on gasoline, however, have now improved substantially, although they are still inferior to what they were in 2024, 2023 and 2022.
If one assumes crude oil price stability in the near term, we still may see some minor gasoline price increases, which beyond March will include higher cost from higher costs for compliance with federal anti-smog regulations. In general, seasonal gasoline demand will be building from this month forward toward spring-summer peaks, a supporter of price.
In Boston, retailers gained 2.05 cents in regular-grade margin as wholesale's price drop was triple the retail price drop. Margin averages a comfier 54.68 CPG on Feb. 7.
San Francisco Bay Area retailers, meanwhile, now garner just 45 CPG in regular-grade margin on average, a far cry from the handsome 67.56 cents margin achieved back on Dec. 20. Here, the average retail price moved up 11.02 CPG, while the average wholesale price zoomed up 27.36 cents.
Click here for previous Lundberg Survey reports in CSP Daily News.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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