For both global and domestic reasons, the U.S. gasoline price rose another 6 cents per gallon in the past two weeks and may well rise a lot more next month, perhaps 10 to 25 cents per gallon.
The near-term price change possibilities have a wide range at this time due to the wild card of Iran: If there is a decisive U.S. military strike on Iran, the world oil market may view an oil supply threat to dwarf that already perceived. The tensions now include a stoppage exercise by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz though which 20% of world oil flows.
Beyond the shock of military attack, however, military conflict may subsequently result in demand destruction, or fear of same, which would deflate oil prices.
In the case of the United States, gasoline is experiencing its own market dynamics, two of which are calendar-mandated: March is the month when more benign weather and daylight time starts to unleash gasoline demand.
This is given a special boost by the start of Daylight Saving Time. DST is coming on March 8. Demand being seasonally liberated supports prices. The calendar month when the largest retail price hike is seen is March: Lundberg Survey's latest gasoline price seasonality study reveals that March historically has a retail gasoline price climb of 14 cents, on average.
West Texas Intermediate's near-month futures market price closed $2.84 per barrel higher than it had two weeks earlier, largely due to heightened hostility between the U.S. and Iran. That is the equivalent of nearly 7 cents per gallon.
If oil prices were to rise by that amount again soon, further rises at retail of 5 to 10 cents are ensured. March rises may prove to be far greater. And whatever national gasoline market conditions prove to be, California and neighboring states dependent upon it for fuel supply will be adding to price hikes: With the two major refinery closures, the state is starting its new phase of deeper import dependency.
Gasoline coming in via the Bahamas and from Asia are adding to cost. Supply is still insufficient to meet demand. In the past week alone, the average unbranded rack price of regular grade gasoline jumped 14.17 cents per gallon in Petroleum Administration for Defense District 5, to $2.8568 per gallon, while the national average rose about half that amount.
U.S. refiners continue to labor under heavy stress on gasoline margins. This is an element in favor of higher wholesale gasoline prices. As for gasoline retailers, thanks to timing they have, in the past two weeks, recovered 7.7 cents per gallon in gasoline margin, putting the national average at a still tight 34.3 cents.
Trilby Lundberg is publisher of the Lundberg Survey of U.S. fuel markets. Lundberg Survey Inc. is based in Camarillo, California.
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