As much as the occupant of the White House is blamed or lauded for gas prices, the president has little influence, based on a historical understanding of gas prices, according to GasBuddy.
Prices have more to do with global supply, said Jonathan Polonsky, chairman and CEO at Plaid Pantry, a 107-store chain based in Beaverton, Oregon.
Plaid Pantry is No. 64 on CSP’s 2024 Top 202 ranking of U.S. convenience-store chains by store count.
The president can control certain factors, such as increasing domestic energy output, changing fuel import and export guidance or adjusting policies on how to manage the nation’s oil reserves. Over an extended period, macro-level policies can also affect gas prices.
A lot of Americans think these policies have immediate effects, said Patrick DeHaan, vice president of media relations and communications for consumer programs at PDI Technologies, Alpharetta, Georgia, which owns GasBuddy. Most of the time, though, these effects take years to culminate in the United States.
The president has different potential impacts on gasoline, like control of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), DeHaan said.
“The president may have the ability, for example, to declare a waiver [on gasoline types, pollution or emissions],” DeHaan said. “On that front, the president has a little bit of control, but I qualify both the impact on oil and gasoline prices is relatively minimal.”
But what most affects gas prices are crude oil prices—which are dependent upon supply and demand—as well as refining process costs, distribution expenses, station operation charges and a variety of taxes, according to GasBuddy.
As oil prices rise, gas gets more expensive. As oil prices fall, gas gets cheaper. When global demand is high or supply tightens, the price per barrel rises, according to a report from GasBuddy.
After oil is extracted and traded on energy markets, it needs to be refined into gas, so in addition to the other factors, operational expenses, equipment upkeep and transportation all play into the price consumers pay at the pump.
With oil costs accounting for about 54% of what consumers pay at the pump, more expensive oil usually leads to more expensive gasoline, according to the American Automobile Association.
For example, the first week of February is generally the lowest price point of the season, said Jeff Lenard, vice president of strategic industry initiatives at the National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS) Alexandria, Virginia, but the spring transition generally leads to a shortage of product and demand begins to increase. These supply-demand imbalances usually lead to price adjustments.
Distribution, logistics and marketing also add to retail fuel prices. Lastly, fuel taxes, credit card transaction fees, the costs of running gas stations, branding royalties and regional environmental fees all contribute to the gas prices that consumers see.
“It’s a world market; unless there's demand for it, prices will go down,” said Polonsky.
In terms of today’s dollars, gas prices have remained relatively flat since 2008. Going back a decade, the average price of gas to start summer has averaged an inflation-adjusted $3.99 per gallon, according to GasBuddy.
Prices and the White House
Every president since 2000 has left office with gas prices higher than when they took office, said Jeff Lenard of NACS, citing Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers. Extremely low prices aren’t a bragging point, anyway, he said. It usually means something bad happened to the economy, because extremely low gas prices are almost always associated with a severe and sudden drop in demand that only happens when the economy crashes.
- Bill Clinton left office with gas prices 39 cents higher ($1.06 on Jan. 25, 1993; $1.47 on Jan. 22, 2001).
- George W. Bush left office with gas prices 39 cents higher ($1.47 on Jan. 22, 2001; $1.84 on Jan. 26, 2009).
- Barack Obama left office with gas prices 49 cents higher ($1.84 on Jan. 26, 2009; $2.33 on Jan. 23, 2017)
- Donald Trump left office with prices climbing 6 cents ($2..33 on Jan. 23, 2017; $2.39 on Jan. 5, 2021). There were some extenuating supply and demand circumstances related to President Trump's time in office—because of the massive drop in fuel consumption related to the pandemic, gasoline demand dropped 5.7% comparing President Trump’s first week in office to his last.
Since 2008, various changes such as OPEC production levels, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the post-COVID U.S. economy reopening led to a “super surge” in gas prices; however, that surge in pricing has dissipated in 2023 and 2024, according to GasBuddy.
“Back in the early days, when Russia had just invaded Ukraine, nobody knew what Russia was going to be capable of,” said DeHaan. “Would Russia manipulate energy markets to drive up oil prices? Would Russia halt the exports of oil or refined products? A lot of those worst potential fears have not been realized, and Russia has continued to export product since their invasion of Ukraine. Oil markets have been cooling back off as a result of the risk decreasing over time of things like disruption to the floorboard.”
Polonsky agreed, and said, “What might have held up prices was the fear that Russian oil would go away, but that doesn't seem to be the case. If anything, there's more supply coming online, not less.”
Republican candidates generally take a more lenient stance on regulation in the oil sector, and that can have a positive impact, said DeHaan.
At press time in late September, DeHaan said, “We don't really know a whole lot about what [Harris] may change [if elected], but President Biden has been a bit more restrictive when it when it comes to allowing the oil and gas sector to grow.”
In February, “President Biden pulled out every tool at his disposal, announcing a record-breaking withdrawal from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Yet, oil and gas prices continued to climb higher, topping $5 nationally in mid-June,” according to Lenard.
The administration claimed that its quick actions helped reduce gas prices by 40 cents over what they would have been, but that’s speculation, said Lenard.
A later withdrawal from the SPR in September barely moved the needle on prices. The releases, while record breaking, cumulatively represented about two days of world oil supply, according to NACS.
“I would argue [as of late September], [Biden’s withdrawal] is actually driving prices [up] because they're refilling it,” said Polonsky. Plaid Pantry’s total fuel sales are off 4%, he said.
According to the latest Tracking Convenience Report from GasBuddy and PDI Technologies, gas prices began to stabilize into more traditional and predictable patterns in 2023—and that trend has continued in 2024.
Consumer prices rose 2.5% in the 12 months through August, the slowest year-on-year increase since February 2021, data from the Labor Department shows. The data shows gasoline prices down 10% from a year-ago, the largest annual decline since July 2023.
“[Fuel] prices have more to do with global supply.” —Jonathan Polonsky, Plaid Pantry
Gasoline prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, have not grown since April.
As of Sept. 17, the national average was $3.20, which was 20 cents less than a month ago and 70 cents less than a year ago, according to AAA.
The election doesn’t necessarily affect fuel sales at convenience stores, DeHaan said.
However, politicians in Petaluma, California, have put restrictions in place banning the development of new gas stations to reduce carbon emissions, he said. Four more cities in the Bay Area have followed suit.
“The Trump administration would likely not place additional regulation on c-stores, whereas the Harris and current Biden administration haven't done anything significant to additionally regulate c-stores, but there have been enough ideas bouncing around the Democratic side of the aisle that could mean additional regulations for c-stores that they should keep an eye out,” said DeHaan.
There has been discussion between Democrats on how to quickly make a move from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and gas stations that sell gasoline to requiring or mandating electric vehicle charging stations, DeHaan said.
If new gas stations are banned, more motorists may purchase EVs. The speed of the EV transition is a major difference between political parties, and c-store regulation could change as a result. There could be mandates that c-stores add electric vehicle chargers, or there may not be mandates, DeHaan said.
“I don't think consumers really have to worry,” DeHaan said. “More consumers have shifted away from wanting a full-on battery electric vehicle to things like hybrids. And manufacturers have been moving in that direction as well.”
Plaid Pantry installed its first EV chargers at one of its locations in October 2023 in Portland, Oregon. The chargers were the first installation of Electric Era Technologies, a company launched by former SpaceX engineers in 2019.
The convenience-store chain funded the first location itself, with a 30% subsidized federal tax credit. It was “an experiment to educate myself in real-world experience,” Polonsky said. And while “it’s working and everything’s functioning, this is just not the adoption rate that we need to see to get excited about making additional capital investments.”
Polonsky saidthere will still be EV adoption regardless of who is in the White House, but that adoption might accelerate or decelerate compared to today.
“If gas goes back up to $5 a gallon, people are going to start parking their [ICE vehicles] and start looking at buying EVs, and vice versa,” said DeHaan. “[As of September], gas is going the other way, so the momentum in EV adoption is slowing. People seem to really want that hybrid, so they have what they think is the best of both worlds.”
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