While the White House delayed its planned menthol cigarette ban earlier this year, the persistent question for the convenience-store industry now centers around what happens after Nov. 5?
“A bunch of scenarios could happen,” Executive Director David Spross with the National Association of Tobacco Outlets (NATO), said Sept. 11, at CSP’s Tobacco Plus Forum in Schaumburg, Illinois.
Speaking to a packed room full of convenience-store retailers, Spross listed his top three election scenarios regarding the FDA’s proposed rules prohibiting menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars.
“If Vice President [Kamala] Harris wins the election, obviously the political concerns go out the window for four years,” Spross said. “I think very quickly you could probably see a rule be finalized shortly after the election maybe even before she is inaugurated; she’ll have [President] Biden do it.”
Spross said that if Vice President Kamala Harris loses there are “some out there that think that in the ‘lame duck situation’ that the rule will be pushed through before President Joe Biden leaves office.”
Spross explained that anytime there is a transition between presidential administrations there tends to be a “stand down” on finalizing any rules, which he said includes tobacco or any other issue.
The third scenario of Donald Trump winning the election will result in the rule being postponed, Spross said.
“The common theme is that the rule will be postponed indefinitely,” Spross said. “If you look at his first term, he was against overarching federal regulations in general and so I think it would be very likely that we would see a pause.”
Spross pointed out that regardless of what happens “if a rule is finalized Nov. 6, it will be at least a year for an effective date, and I believe that it will be pushed out even further because the [tobacco] industry will file legal challenges.”
The White House delayed its planned menthol cigarette ban following “immense” feedback and “historic” attention, according to a statement from U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on April 26.
The final rules have been under review by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) since October 2023. This is step eight of the nine-step federal rulemaking process.
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