What Elections Mean for Tobacco, Nicotine Regulatory Space

• Facebook
• Twitter
• LinkedIn

There is a frequently used saying in politics—“elections matter!” This is certainly applicable to the tobacco and nicotine regulatory space, where whoever controls the White House, Congress, and even state offices can have a substantial impact on policies.

On the federal level, the fate of two proposed rules, one banning menthol in cigarettes and the other banning flavored cigars, hangs in the balance after the  Biden administration delayed its finalization until after the election as the rules have “garnered historic attention and the public comment period has yielded an immense amount of feedback, including from various elements of the civil rights and criminal justice movement,” according to Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra on April 26. As a result, post-election, one of the following three scenarios may occur: 

• The Democrat's presidential candidate wins, and the rules are finalized shortly after Nov. 5.

• The Democrat's presidential candidate and President Biden finalize the rules prior to the new administration’s taking office.

• Former President Donald Trump wins, and his administration holds the rules and prevents their finalization.

Regardless of when the rules are finalized, each would have an effective date of at least one year from publication and expected court challenges could very well further delay each rule’s implementation.

Whatever course of action the administration takes on the menthol cigarette and flavored cigar bans, the finalization of these rules would likely also impact the timing of issuance of a long-discussed proposed rule that would require reducing nicotine in cigarettes and possibly other combustible tobacco products to minimally- or non-addictive levels. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has stated publicly that it will not move forward on the nicotine standard until sometime after finalization of the menthol cigarette and flavored cigar regulations. As a reminder, this proposal is much earlier in the rulemaking process compared to the menthol cigarette and flavored cigar bans, and therefore it will be many years before any nicotine standard takes effect.

Party control of Congress will also have an impact on any tobacco and nicotine legislation. Back in 2021, when Biden had just taken office and the Democrats controlled both the U.S. Senate and House, substantial increases in tobacco taxes were proposed as part of an economic package. After engagement from industry stakeholders, the tobacco tax hikes were removed from the package.

State Level 

On the state level, citizens will vote in 11 gubernatorial races throughout the country. Earlier this year, Gov. Phil Scott (R-Vermont), who is running for re-election, vetoed a bill that would have banned the sale of all flavored tobacco products in the Green Mountain State. Additionally, new governors will be elected in eight states with no incumbent candidate. They are Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Washington and West Virginia.

Equally as important is party control of the state legislatures. Over 5,700 state legislative seats in 44 states are up for grabs this year. As we have seen in recent years, these legislative bodies have considered many tobacco-related bills, including those proposing to increase state excise taxes, ban sales of flavored tobacco products, and restrict issuance or transfer of tobacco licenses.

As Election Day draws closer, I encourage all to be involved in the process and, most importantly, go vote! The National Association of Tobacco Outlets (NATO) will be engaged by educating policymakers, regulators and candidates on these important tobacco and nicotine regulatory issues.

Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.