I remember the first time I happened upon a vaporizer. It wasn’t my first day on the job at CSP; in fact, it pre-dated my first day at any grown-up job. Not long after graduating from NYU, I visited friends in Seattle and, in typical Seattle fashion, attended a party with newly hired Microsoft employees.
As high-earning twentysomething tech guys are wont to do, our hosts were eager to show off their collection of toys: gaming systems, a Roomba, a digital draft box and their latest purchase, a Volcano vaporizer. A far cry from today’s battery-powered cig-alikes, the Volcano was a 10-pound reverse-cone-shaped device that plugged into the wall. When turned on, it filled a balloon with vapor, which was passed around to partygoers. And it wasn’t loose tobacco they were vaporizing.
So when I first started covering the e-vapor segment and heard people expressing concerns that these devices might be corrupted and used for marijuana, I couldn’t help but shake my head a little. Fortunately, attitudes—and laws—have come a long way: Colorado and Washington are proving legalized marijuana is a boon for states and retailers willing to consider it; Alaska and Oregon have followed suit on legalization, with multiple states eyeing ballot initiatives for 2016; and convenience retailers, once hesitant to even discuss the possibility of marijuana sales, are now listing legalized marijuana as a top opportunity for the future.
All of this is occurring at a time when e-vapor is under intense scrutiny. The FDA’s pre-market tobacco application requirement stands to, at best, limit innovation or, at worst, wipe out a majority of independent e-vapor manufacturers. (See story on p. 87.)
And the industry is under attack from multiple state and local regulators and anti-tobacco groups. The CDC has gone so far as to demonize electronic cigarettes in its 2015 “Tips from Former Smokers” campaign.
The Survival of Vapor
Given the timing, I’ve often found myself thinking about that connection between e-vapor and marijuana—not if people might use vapor products for marijuana, but the opportunity this natural connection presents.
I’m not suggesting that e-vapor manufacturers invest in grow rooms, nor do I have any inside information. I’m merely speculating about how e-vapor might survive—and thrive—if the emphasis is no longer just on vaporizing nicotine.
Here are just a few indicators:
Heat-Not-Burn: Already pegged as a 2015 trend to watch, many heat-not-burn vaporizers acknowledge that they can be used with loose tobacco or “herb.” Because heat-not-burn vaporizers include no tobacco or nicotine, these options are potentially exempt from the FDA’s deeming rule because the agency has authority only over products containing tobacco and nicotine. Maybe it’s not a matter of vapor companies moving from smoke juice to liquid THC, but focusing on hardware rather than what’s being vaped.
The Coffee Shop-Vape Shop Connection: Like Amsterdam’s pot-selling coffee shops, vape shops offer a space where consumers browse a vapor menu, test devices and are guided by “pros.” The coffee shop resemblance might be purely coincidental, but these vape shops could quickly change to a coffee shop model if/when legalization occurs in their state.
Serendipitous Timing: The PMTA requirement in the FDA’s deeming proposal grants a two-year window for manufacturers to submit their pre-market applications; assuming deeming is finalized this year, those applications would have to be filed by 2018. On the flip side, Time predicts as many as 18 states will legalize recreational marijuana by 2020. The timing of all this is coincidental, but that doesn’t mean that vapor companies can’t capitalize on it.
All these “ifs” provide an opportunity for vaping manufacturers and retailers. For example, if the legalization trend continues and if some vaping manufacturers opt to pursue that opportunity, retailers would have the option of working with suppliers they’re already familiar with, ones that have already established somewhat of a name for themselves within the world of vapor.
The Consumer Angle
But perhaps the biggest opportunity is the consumer. Consider the stereotypical stoner vs. the stereotypical heavy smoker: Who is more likely to care about health or using a more natural product? And though a pack-a-day smoker might balk at $50 for a starter e-cig kit, those Seattle millennials had no problem paying $700 for the Volcano.
To be fair, marijuana remains illegal on the federal level. I doubt any national e-vapor or tobacco player is going to rush into the cannabis business so long as it carries the threat of a DEA raid. It’s also still possible that the final deeming regulations will be rewritten to make it easier for vapor companies to survive and thrive.
For now, it’s certainly an intriguing possibility that the future of the e-vapor industry doesn’t lie solely with the FDA, but with grassroots marijuana legalization efforts. And that’s not a bad thing
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