Fuels

A Peek at Pump Price Peaks

An April drop possible, says Lundberg

CAMARILLO, Calif. -- The U.S. average price of self-serve regular gasoline increased 5.57 cents in the past two weeks, to $2.6071, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey (www.lundbergsurvey.com) of approximately 7,000 U.S. gas stations. It is a drop in the bucket compared to the more than 20 cents hike of the prior two weeks.

The regional variations behind the average tell the story of refinery events that caused the recent price run-up: In the Midwest, the average price rose less than a penny on average (and in six states, actually fell; [image-nocss] in Indianapolis, the price slipped 6 cents). In the West, the average jumped more than 15 cents during the period, and the March 23 problem at the Torrance, Calif.,refinery ensures prices haven't yet peaked, according to Lundberg.

But overall, with the continuous and urgent crude oil supply and price caveat, the gasoline market is already poised for peaking and falling: Refiners have about half of this year's "extra month" of spring supply challenge from the early Daylight Saving Time under their belts; their capacities are coming back from turnarounds and repairs; plus, at these prices, foreign gallons won't long be able to resist floating to our shores in bigger volumes.

Refiners gave up some margin while retailers gained some, and neither appears abnormal. If crude-oil prices allow, retail gasoline prices may peak well before May.

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