Fuels

What Might Trigger a Gas Price Correction?

While current trend is down, GasBuddy cites factors that could pressure retail costs

BOSTON -- The national retail average for regular gasoline dropped for almost three weeks to $2.26 per gallon by July 5, the longest consecutive decline since February, according to Boston-based GasBuddy.

gasoline pump nozzle

As of July 5, more than 20,000 gas stations in 32 states were selling gasoline for less than $2 per gallon. The lowest prices were in the Gulf Coast region, along with some areas of the Midwest. South Carolina had the lowest state average at $1.95 per gallon, while California had the highest at $2.91 per gallon.

The biggest week-over-week declines were in the Great Lakes region, which is recovering from refinery issues that sent prices jumping in early June. Ohio had the greatest week-over-week price drop at 12.5 cents per gallon (CPG), followed by Indiana (down 12.1 CPG), Michigan (10.5 CPG), Illinois (9.3 CPG) and Kentucky (8.7 CPG). Averages rose in a few western states, although only modestly: Hawaii led with a 2.5-CPG increase, followed by Nevada (1.5 CPG), and Washington and Arizona, both up 0.9 CPG.

Year over year, retail gasoline prices are still lower in every state. Alaska has the biggest discount at 84.5 CPG, followed by Indiana (68.6 CPG), Utah (64.8 CPG), Nevada (62.9 CPG) and Michigan (61.7 CPG).

Alaska also has the largest year-over-year retail price discount for diesel, down 83.8 CPG, followed by New York (down 68.0 CPG), Connecticut (66.7 CPG), Massachusetts (61.6 CPG), Delaware (59.4 CPG) and New Hampshire (59.1 CPG).

GasBuddy analysts expect retail gasoline prices to continue to fall over the next week as refinery utilization rates leap to their highest point in months and supplies build. In the Great Lakes region, where tough competition is pressuring retailers to sell below cost, a price increase or correction may soon happen in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio, as well as parts of Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin.

The approaching hurricane season has the potential to further heat up state averages, said Patrick DeHaan, GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst.

"In the last couple of years we have seen minimal to no disruption as hurricane season largely went by with no major storms that hit land,” said DeHaan. “Should we see a major hurricane enter the Gulf, gas prices may react.”

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