CSP Magazine

CSP Fuel: The Low-Crude Ripple Effect

As crude oil prices fall below $50, the effect on gas prices and other sectors of the fuel industry ripples outward.

With crude-oil prices at or below $50 per barrel over the past month, lower prices at the pump aren't the only result. Here's a look at how several differect sectors of the industry are being affected:

GAS PRICES

  • $2.60: Projected average gas price for 2015, 23% below projected average for 2014, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
  • $100 billion: Potential savings in gas costs for 2015, assuming $2.60 average. Each consumer would save $550 in gas costs, or $45 per month, according to EIA.

THE CONSUMER

  • 98.2: Consumer sentiment—the highest point since 2004—on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as of Jan. 16, 2015.
  • 4.6%: Increase in retail sales in December year over year, according to the National Retail Federation.

IN-STORE SALES

  • 1.1%: Increase in total store dollars with 3.7% decrease in gas prices, according to MSA.
  • $65 million: Lottery sales hit record amounts in Iowa from July to October 2014.
  • “Those are optional purchases when they go into the store and have a few bucks in their pockets, and that’s what they’re buying.”--Terry Rich, Iowa Lottery president

ALTERNATIVE FUELS

  • Falling gas prices narrow the price advantage of many alternative fuels and squeeze margins for their producers.
  • At parity: Premium of ethanol futures to gasoline futures.
  • $1.75 per gasoline gallon equivalent: Average cost of compressed natural gas (CNG) in January vs. $2.139 for regular gasoline and $3.053 for diesel, according to CNGNow, EIA.

GAS-TAX DISCUSSION

  • Michigan, New Jersey, South Carolina and other states mull increases to state gas taxes as infrastructure funds run out.
  • “There have been overwhelming infrastructure needs for quite a while, and now that gas prices are lower, it’s a little bit more politically feasible to talk about raising the gas tax.”--Carl Davis, analyst for Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), to NPR

PRODUCTION

  • $65 to $75: When crude-oil prices fall within this range, the analysis for the Keystone pipeline changes, according to the State Department.
  • 20%: Cut in 2015 capital spending at ConocoPhillips. BP and Marathon Oil also announce cuts. Low crude prices threaten profıtability of Bakken producers.
  • Calls grow to end export ban, but lifting it “would probably increase domestic production but have little effect on prices,” according to Congressional Budget Offıce.
  • “There is very little impact—nominal impact—on U.S. gas prices, what the average American consumer cares about.”--President Obama, Dec. 19, 2014, on Keystone pipeline’s impact

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