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Canary in the Coal Mine'

Which channels are winning, which are losing as the economy turns around
DALLAS -- There are winners and losers within every economic trend, and the slow recovery from the Great Recession is no different. Store traffic data from the NPD Group shows a split in the convenience-store channel, while another channel comes out head and shoulders about the rest.

Independent and small c-stores took the brunt of the hit in 2010, according to year-end data comparing the change in convenience-occasion traffic vs. the previous year. Independents/small stores saw a 17% drop in traffic this past year, even as consumers returned to stores more often.

Major-oil [image-nocss] c-stores saw traffic growth of 5%, while "traditional" c-store chains saw traffic grow by 9%. But the clear traffic winner for the year was the grocery/hypermarket channel, which saw convenience-occasion traffic grow a whopping 37%.

"In the last year, about 16% of gasoline purchases were made at a grocery store or hypermarket," said Adam Clay, manager client development for the NPD Group. "I think of c-stores as the canary in the coal mine: C-store shoppers pull back earlier and are slower to return" when the economy stumbles.

For the c-store channel overall, 2010 proved healthy, showing traffic growth of nearly 9% in the second and fourth quarters and as high as 12% in the third quarter, according to NPD data. This came after a steady decline in traffic beginning in early 2007 and bottoming out at -20% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Speaking at CSP's 2011 Cold Vault Summit in Dallas, Clay (pictured) said NPD data shows 29% of all c-store purchases include a beverage product, with an average basket total of $9.50 per visit (total does not include gasoline purchases). Thirty% of cold-vault shoppers report making at least eight c-store purchases per month (14% report eight to 12 purchases; 16% report 13 or more purchase).

Watch for a complete report from CSP's 2011 Cold Vault Summit in the May issue of CSP magazine.

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