The legal U.S. cannabis market is expected to deliver $45 billion in total legal sales by 2027, cannabis analytics company BDSA said in a June market forecast update.
The market is expected to grow 12% by the end of 2023, reaching $29.6 billion in sales, the Louisville, Colorado-based company said. That’s compared to a $36.7 billion global legal cannabis industry, with about 80% of the sales coming from U.S. markets.
“Over the next five years, the biggest drivers of cannabis industry growth in the U.S. will be the thriving Midwest and East Coast markets,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “New markets, especially adult-use markets like Missouri, New Jersey and New York, will lead growth. Although mature Western markets such as Colorado and California have experienced sales stagnation or decline due to price compression, they will continue to account for a substantial portion of legal sales through 2027.”
While U.S. convenience stores cannot currently sell cannabis, some industry experts believe that cannabis products, including marijuana, will eventually end up in convenience backbar sets.
So what are some key states to watch? BDSA highlights a few:
- Maryland and Delaware are set to launch adult-use sales in July 2023 and late 2024, respectively.
- Despite legal challenges, adult-use sales are expected to begin in Florida in 2025 and reach $4.3 billion by 2027.
- In Illinois, total spending on cannabis is expected to grow by 8.3% to more than $2 billion in 2023 as the state rolls out new licenses.
- Adult-use sales in Michigan have exceeded expectations in 2023, BDSA said, especially given how much other mature cannabis markets have struggled. Its projected to grow 19% in total sales by the end of 2023.
- California and Pennsylvania are expected to see a decline in sales this year. Price compression and illicit competition led to annual legal sales declining for the first time in California in 2022, and sales are expected to be down 9% in 2023, total $4.8 million. Pennsylvania is also expected to see a decline in cannabis spending, with legal sales expected at about $1 billion in 2023.
BDSA provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by generating insights from point-of-sale data, wholesale data, consumer research and market forecasts.
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