Category Management Handbook

Packaged Beverages: Carbonated Soft Drinks 2016

Market Share: Nonalcohol Beverages

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

More than 31% of c-store packaged-beverage sales came from CSDs in 2015, while energy drinks edged up to nearly 28% of the pie, according to Nielsen.

 

Subcategory

Dollar share

PCYA*

Unit sales (Millions)

PCYA*

Carbonated soft drinks31.1%23.3%58.821.7%
Energy drinks27.7%9.5%74.610.0%
Water12.8%4.6%57.92.5%
Sports drinks9.9%2.1%37.34.0%
RTD tea5.6%(6.6%)25.1(7.0%)
Fruit drinks4.4%14.3%29.315.1%
Fruit juice3.4%94.0%11.395.0%
RTD coffee2.7%(10.0%)19.3(5.6%)
Others***2.2%3.8%11.52.8%

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | * Percent change from a year ago | *** Beverages with less than 2% dollar share


Big Number

0.9% —Decline in c-store unit sales of CSDs in 2015, per Nielsen


Where the Gains Are

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

C-store dollar sales of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) rose nearly 2% in the 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015, while units were off nearly 1% and volumes dropped 3%, according to Nielsen. The only segment showing dollar and unit growth was low-calorie noncola CSDs, although its volumes fell 1%. According to IRI figures for the 52 weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015, c-store dollar sales of CSDs rose 3.8% to reach $9.0 billion, while units rose 1.8%.

Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs)

CSD typeC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Volume sales (millions)PCYA*
Regular$6,659.52.1%4,042.5(0.7%)
Low-calorie$1,829.50.8%1,105.1(1.2%)
Total$8,489.01.9%5,147.6(0.9%)

Noncola CSDs

CSD typeC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Volume sales (millions)PCYA*
Regular$4,118.02.5%2,541.3(0.6%)
Low-calorie$753.96.8%467.55.0%
Total noncola$4,871.93.2%3,008.90.2%

Cola CSDs

CSD typeC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Volume sales (millions)PCYA*
Regular$2,541.51.6%1,501.2(1.0%)
Low-calorie$1,075.6(3.0%)637.5(5.4%)
Total cola$3,617.10.2%2,138.7(2.3%)

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | * Percent change from a year ago


Big Number

5.0% —Increase in c-store unit sales of low-calorie, noncola CSDs in 2015, according to Nielsen


Regular and Low-Calorie CSDs

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

Unit sales of regular and low-calorie CSD units in c-stores were off in 2015, Nielsen figures show.

Regular

UPCC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Unit sales (millions)PCYA*
Mountain Dew (20-oz.)$729.62.6%463.7(1.6%)
Coca-Cola (20-oz.)$561.97.1%343.62.6%
Dr Pepper (20-oz.)$372.06.2%228.42.0%
Pepsi (20-oz.)$346.52.2%217.3(1.9%)
Sprite (20-oz.)$214.214.0%129.69.4%
Total**$6,659.52.1%4,042.5(0.7%)

Low-calorie

UPCC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Unit sales (millions)PCYA*
Diet Coke (20-oz.)$252.01.2%154.9(2.8%)
Diet Mountain Dew (20-oz.)$224.7(1.0%)143.6(5.0%)
Diet Pepsi-Cola (20-oz.)$164.32.7%103.1(1.3%)
Diet Dr Pepper (20-oz.)$131.53.9%81.10.2%
Coke Zero (20-oz.)$88.95.3%54.11.1%
Total**$1,829.50.8%1,105.1(1.2%)

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | * Percent change from a year ago | ** Including UPCs/brands/families not shown


20-Ounce CSDs

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

C-store unit sales of 20-ounce CSDs rose nearly 2% in 2015, with Mountain Dew the top variety, according to Nielsen.

Regular

UPCC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Unit sales (millions)PCYA*
Mountain Dew$729.62.6%463.7(1.6%)
Coca-Cola$561.97.1%343.62.6%
Dr Pepper$372.06.2%228.42.0%
Pepsi$346.52.2%217.3(1.9%)
Diet Coke$252.01.2%154.9(2.8%)
Total**$4,727.35.8%3,001.71.7%

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | * Percent change from a year ago | ** Including UPCs/brands/families not shown

Continued: UPC, Package Size & Price Trends

Category Insight

According to Dr Pepper Snapple Group (DPSG), look to these three big CSD trends for 2016:

  • Continued customization of packaging: New brands with differentiated packaging, as well as established brands (e.g., Dr Pepper’s 2016 “Pick-a-Pepper” program), will keep making CSDs personal.
  • Snack bundling promotions: The rise of the snacking trend will provide more opportunities for beverage tie-ins as c-stores compete heavily against traditional quick-service-restaurants for on-the-go consumers.
  • Glass bottles continue to shine: These vinyl records of the CSD world may be a small segment, but their vintage cachet makes them increasing popular.

Quarterly Look: CSD UPCs

C-store sales, 13 weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015

According to IRI figures, c-store dollar and unit sales of CSDs were up in the final quarter of 2015, with five of the top 10 UPCs seeing gains.

UPCC-store sales ($ millions)PCYA*Unit sales (millions)PCYA*
Mountain Dew (20-oz.)$185.93.8%117.20.9%
Coca-Cola (20-oz.)$148.88.0%89.85.0%
Dr Pepper (20-oz.)$99.56.5%61.23.7%
Pepsi (20-oz.)$87.75.2%54.71.3%
Diet Coke (20-oz.)$67.41.5%40.8(1.3%)
Diet Mountain Dew (20-oz.)$61.2(0.9%)38.6(3.8%)
Coca-Cola (12 12-oz. cans)$54.0(1.8%)10.5(2.7%)
Sprite (20-oz.)$53.812.0%32.39.0%
Mountain Dew (1-liter)$51.91.2%26.7(0.4%)
Coca-Cola (2-liter)$44.2(2.2%)23.7(2.8%)
Total**$2,191.42.4%1,283.01.5%

Source: IRI | * Percent change from a year ago | ** Including UPCs/brands/families not shown


CSD Package-Size Trends

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

The 20-ounce package size dominates the c-store channel’s CSD dollar sales.

Unit Sales

Package sizeUnit sales (millions)PCYA*
20-oz.3,001.71.7%
2-liter484.7(4.0%)
1-liter392.5(3.9%)
12-pack, 12-oz. cans149.0(9.2%)

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | * Percent change from a year ago

Dollar Sales

Package sizeDollar share
20-oz.55.7%
12-pack, 12-oz. cans8.5%
2-liter10.3%
1-liter9.0%
All others****16.5%

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | **** Package sizes with less than 1% dollar share


Consumer in Focus

According to Technomic, regular CSDs ranked among millennials’ top five packaged-beverage choices in all day-parts. The beverage was the top choice for lunch, dinner and snack, and ranked third-most-popular for breakfast. Thirty-four percent of millennials surveyed by Technomic said they were purchasing regular CSDs more often, compared to 22% who said they were purchasing them less often. Millennials were more likely to say they were purchasing diet CSDs less often (28%) than more often (25%).


CSD Price Trends

C-store sales, 52 weeks ending Dec. 26, 2015

Six-packs saw the biggest increase in retail price per case during 2015, according to Nielsen c-store data.

Package typeAverage price per 288-oz. casePrice increase
20-ounce bottle$22.68$0.87
12-pack, 12-oz. cans$9.68$0.36
2-liter$7.66$0.03
1-liter$16.68$0.49
6-pack, 12-oz. cans$18.75$6.46

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc.


CSD Flavor Trends

Regular noncolas contributed nearly 49% of c-store CSD dollar sales in 2015, while all noncolas supplied more than 57% of category sales, according to Nielsen.

Sources: The Nielsen Co., Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. | *** Flavors with less than 2% volume share


Packaged Beverages: What to Watch

Bottled Water

Fruit Juice and Fruit Drinks

Specialty: Energy, Sport, Tea, Coffee

Alcohol

CMOY Alcohol Beverages: Damian Wyatt

CMOY Packaged Beverages: Gary Woods

View the full 2016 Category Management Handbook

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