U.S. oil companies’ planned $100 billion investment to restore Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is aimed at stabilizing future supply—a move that convenience‑store retailers might benefit from in the long term, said Peter Rasmussen, CEO of Convenience and Energy Advisors.
Wholesale gasoline costs and retailer margins probably won’t change quickly, Rasmussen said, because any added supply is unlikely to push crude prices below their recent $60–$64 per‑barrel range in the short term. Production controls from the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries and the higher cost of refining Venezuela’s heavy crude also will help limit short‑term pricing impact, he said.
The Trump administration’s focus remains on oil and its benefit to affordable energy, Rasmussen said, and that’s what c-store and fuel retailers should keep in mind.
“Retailers should monitor their investments to electric vehicle [infrastructure], as policy has not been favorable,” he said.
Trump and oil industry talk future of crude
In addition to announcing oil majors’ investment of at least $100 billion to rebuild the country’s energy infrastructure, Trump’s X post on Friday also stated that Venezuela is releasing many political prisoners as a gesture toward peace. This comes after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a military operation on Jan. 3, escalating political uncertainty, according to Reuters.
Trump described this as a positive and strategic move and said the United States and Venezuela are cooperating, particularly on rebuilding Venezuela’s oil and gas infrastructure. Because of this cooperation, he said the U.S. has canceled a previously anticipated second round of military attacks, though U.S. ships will remain deployed for security reasons.
Oil executives met with the president at the White House on Friday to discuss the future of the oil industry as he seeks commitments from non-government-owned companies.
When asked by the press if the administration will offer security for oil companies, Trump said, “They know the risks. We’re going to help them out…”
The president assured oil executives that their businesses would be “safe” at the White House meeting.
Investment results could take more than a decade
Estimates quote that restoring Venezuela’s oil production will require more than $100 billion in investment spread over roughly 10 years, according to Rasmussen.
Oil companies think long term vs quarterly, so in the long run, the $100 billion investment makes a lot of sense, Rasmussen said.
Venezuelan crude is heavy and therefore costlier to process, though the U.S. does have refineries equipped to handle it, Rasmussen said.
“Keep in mind, Chevron has already been producing just under 250,000 barrels a day for some time and exporting it to the U.S. in Texas and Louisiana,” he said, adding that Chevron is the company most likely to expand operations.
“Oil companies have been burned in the past with Venezuela, so they are going to want protection on their investment that goes beyond the Trump administration’s term end, as well as security guarantees,” Rasmussen said.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said, “If we look at the commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” reported AP. ExxonMobil had oil projects in Venezuela that were lost as part of a 2007 nationalization of private businesses under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Woods also said, “Significant changes have to be made to those commercial frameworks, the legal system, there has to be durable investment protections and there has to be change to the hydrocarbon laws in the country.”
The reality of Venezuelan oil supply
U.S. officials announced on Wednesday that Venezuela will begin supplying crude to the United States immediately with an initial shipment of about 30 million to 50 million barrels and that sales could “continue indefinitely,” according to Reuters.
This reflects oil already in storage or ready for export, not a sudden jump in daily production, said Patrick De Haan, Dallas-based GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has been weakened by years of underinvestment, sanctions and operational decline, he added.
There would not be risk of interruption in U.S. fuel supply for c-stores because Venezuelan crude would be refined in the U.S. by American Oil companies, Rasmussen said.
“Maduro may be gone, but the rest of his administration is still in power,” Rasmussen said. “[Interim Venezuelan President] Delcy Rodriguez was dynamically successful in leading Venezuelan oil exports when Maduro was in power despite all the pressure of U.S. sanctions. While she is working with the U.S. now, there is still a lot of uncertainty on policy and security.”
South America could play a bigger role in the future of oil supply
The broader strategy is to replace Russian oil supplies with additional Venezuelan barrels, which would strengthen the negotiating position of the United States and its allies by reducing Russia’s oil revenue and potentially increasing leverage to help bring an end to the war in Ukraine, Rasmussen said.
Trump has endorsed a bipartisan Senate bill that would allow tariffs of up to 500% on countries continuing to buy Russian energy exports, including major buyers, according to Reuters.
“Venezuela is a logical alternative,” Rasmussen said. “Keep in mind here that while India and China are the headliners here, Europe continues to procure oil from Russia despite their supportive policy to Ukraine.”
Rasmussen also touched on the effects of President Maduro coming out of Venezuela.
“[It] may be the greatest thing to happen to Guyana,” Rasmussen said. “Guyana was facing a potential war from Venezuela as Venezuela wanted to make claims to their recent oil discoveries. Guyana is producing 900,000 barrels a day and add to that, Suriname has had oil discoveries where billions of barrels have been discovered expected to come online from Total Energies by 2028. The top of South America is about to become the new Middle East.”
Members help make our journalism possible. Become a CSP member today and unlock exclusive benefits, including unlimited access to all of our content. Sign up here.