AAA said the projected slight decline in leisure travel is mainly due to ongoing uncertainty about the strength of the economy; especially rising joblessness and sagging personal incomes. The recent [image-nocss] rise in gasoline prices may also be causing some travelers to limit or abbreviate their holiday plans, although its impact on overall vacation costs remains minimal, it said. The July 4 holiday is typically the busiest time of year for auto travel since nearly all school-aged children are out of school at this time and, as a result, parents are more apt to take family vacations at this time.(See Lundberg Survey report in this issue of CSP Daily News for a different take on holiday travel and gasoline prices.)
"Many Americans remain cautious about the outlook for their personal finances and these attitudes are reflected in the slight decline in travel we are forecasting for the upcoming holiday weekend," said Robert L. Darbelnet, AAA president and CEO.
Although fuel prices remain much lower than they were one year ago, the relatively steep price increase since May will dampen consumer enthusiasm for road trips. AAA projects a 2.6% decline in auto trips from 33.4 million last year to 32.6 million in 2009. More attractive airfares also will contribute to the decline in auto travel.
Gasoline prices are up substantially since May, but are still much lower than they were at this time last year. This should encourage some travelers to drive long distances over the holiday weekend. Fourth of July travelers will log an average of 614 miles roundtrip this upcoming holiday weekend. Over one third (38%) of travelers will stay relatively close to home, with expected round trips of under 250 miles. One third of weekend travelers will log between 250 and 700 miles. And 28 percent will travel over 700 miles round trip.
Trips by other/multi modes, including air/auto combinations, rail, buses and watercraft, will be the dominant means of travel used by an estimated 2.5 million Americans, or 7% of all travelers.
Although air travel will account for only 5% of July 4 leisure travel, the industry is expected to see a 4.9% increase in leisure travel bookings this holiday due to declining airfares and pent up demand from those who have not taken a vacation trip by air in some time. Two million person trips are expected by air. Last July 4 air travel declined steeply, so this year's rebound is significant, said AAA.
Fourth of July travelers expect to spend approximately $1,160 per household this upcoming holiday weekend. Transportation and accommodations will account for about half of trip spending, while food and beverage absorbs another 20% of the holiday budget. Shopping, entertainment and recreation will account for the remaining 30% of spending on average.
According to AAA's Leisure Travel Index - a monitor of pricing in 20 popular cities across the US for hotel and car rentals, as well as 40 pairs of cities for air travel pricing--the lowest average published airfares over the July 4 holiday weekend are expected to decrease 16% from last year as air passengers will pay as little as $169. From February 2009 through June 2009, the lowest fares have been less than the same timeframe in 2008. Car rental rates are up slightly with consumers paying an average of $51 per day compared to $49 a year ago, an increase of 5%. Hotel rates for AAA Three Diamond and Two Diamond lodgings are expected to be 12% less than last year with travelers spending an average of $137 per night for Three Diamond properties. Travelers planning to stay at AAA Two Diamond hotels will pay an average of $101 per night.
Regional holiday trip forecasts are strongly influenced by the economic conditions that exist in each market. The pain associated with current economic conditions is of course not evenly distributed throughout the country, said AAA. Relative strength in the Mountain Region (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico) for example, is reflected in our expectations for higher than average Independence Day weekend travel. It will be quite the opposite for the New England and East South Central regions.
As North America's largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 51 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services.
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