Fuels

Labor Day Travel Predictions

Steady amid affordability concerns, says AAA

WASHINGTON -- Despite falling fuel prices, now around $2.79 per gallon, Americans are still very concerned about the affordability of travel and so AAA expects travel over the Labor Day holiday weekend to be flat as the number of travelers holds steady from last year (with 0.2% growth). The increase is lower than the overall increase in the U.S. population, noted AAA.

AAA estimates that 34.6 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this holiday, almost the exact same number that traveled last Labor Day. Labor Day travel has been sluggish [image-nocss] since 2005, when 34.8 million traveled over the holiday weekend. According to the Travel Industry Association (TIA), travelers' perception of higher costs for fuel, lodging and airfares have resulted in the small growth in Labor Day travelers from 2006.

Many Americans are facing household budget constraints this summer, which may be affecting holiday travel, said Robert L. Darbelnet, president and CEO of AAA. Labor Day has traditionally been a slower holiday weekend for family travel because many schools have already started. But this year families appear to be concerned about the travel costs associated with an end of summer vacation, which may mean Americans aren't canceling previously planned trips, but are not planning to travel more than they did last year.

Approximately 28.9 million travelers (83.5% of all holiday travelers) expect to go by motor vehicle, just under the 29 million who drove a year ago.

Holiday auto travelers will find gasoline prices nationwide currently averaging $2.79 for a gallon of self-serve regular gasolinedown about 28 cents from a month ago and nearly 23 cents lower than last year.

Although this summer airlines have endured negative press about service and flight delays, 4.1 million (12% of holiday travelers) plan to travel by airplane, up 2.5% from the 4 million that flew over the last Labor Day holiday. Between Labor Day 2005 and 2006 we saw a decrease of 2.5% in the number of Americans traveling by air. A projected 1.6 million vacationers (4.6%) will go by train, bus, or other mode of transportation, the same as a year ago.

AAA's Leisure Travel Index shows vacation costs remaining steady from this time last year. Hotel rates have increased, averaging 3% higher for a moderately-priced hotel room for the 20 top destinations used in the comparison; however, airfares have remained constant, while car rental rates have come down a welcome average of 3% from last year's prices.

In order to make holiday traveling more affordable, American travelers should, as always, plan ahead in order to find the best airfares and hotel rates, said Darbelnet. And even though gasoline prices have fallen over the past year, drivers will find that it's well worth identifying the cheapest gas stations along their route ahead of time.

The most Labor Day travelers will originate in the West with 9.1 million; followed by the Southeast with 8.1 million; Midwest, 6.4 million; Northeast, 6 million; and Great Lakes, 5.1 million.

The West is expected to produce the most holiday travelers by auto, truck or RV, with 7.4 million, followed by the Southeast with 6.6 million; the Midwest with 5.6 million; the Northeast with 4.8 million; and the Great Lakes with 4.5 million.

The West is also expected to produce the largest number of air travelers with 1.5 million, followed by the Southeast at 1.3 million; the Northeast will produce 500,000 air travelers, the Great Lakes 400,000 and the Midwest 300,000.

Cities and urban areas top the list of preferred destinations this holiday with 30.4% of travel volume. Oceans and beaches rank next, with 19.8%, followed by small towns/rural areas, with 16.5%. Theme and amusement parks can expect to see 11.1% of holiday travelers; followed by mountain areas, 9.2%; lakes, 4.5%; and state/national parks, 3.6%. Another 5% responded with other.

Research for holiday travel is based on a national telephone survey of 1,950 adults by the Travel Industry Association, which conducts special research for AAA.

As North America's largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 50 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services.

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