National Average Fuel Price Expected to Drop 13 Cents in 2024

Potential high could be $3.89, low under $3
GasBuddy Fuel Price Outlook 2024
CSP Staff

Drivers can expect lower fuel prices in 2024, according to GasBuddy’s annual Fuel Price Outlook. The outlook forecasts that the yearly national average will drop from $3.51 per gallon this year to $3.38 in 2024.

“As 2023 fades away, I’m hopeful those $5 and $6 prices for gasoline and diesel will also fade into memory,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, Dallas. “The global refining picture continues to improve, providing more capacity and peace of mind that record-setting prices will stay away from the pump in 2024. I anticipate that we’ll still have some volatility, unexpected outages and disruptions and potentially weather-related issues, but I do not expect it to lead to record prices. Offsetting OPEC+’s production cuts is contributing to the rise of U.S. oil production, which now stands at record levels. Combined with Canada, North American oil production could further stabilize countries that have decided to curb oil production.”

Gas prices still could fall below a national average of $3 per gallon this winter before starting to rise in late-February, according to GasBuddy, getting close to $4 per gallon as summer approaches, then mildly declining into summer, with hurricane season presenting uncertainty in late summer.

The outlook forecasts the highest prices will be seen at the peak of the summer driving season in May, with the national average potentially rising as high as $3.89 per gallon. More uncertainty is expected with hurricane season in late summer. Diesel prices are also predicted to fall incrementally from 2023, peaking at $4.13 per gallon in March 2024.

The report also noted that drivers in some California cities could again briefly see prices above $6 per gallon if major refinery issues develop during the summer, although most major U.S. cities will see prices peak at or slightly below $4 per gallon in 2024.

Americans are expected to spend a combined $446.9 billion on gasoline in 2024. Average yearly spending per household will fall to an estimated $2,407, down 2% from 2023, and over 12% less compared to 2022.

Electric vehicles (EVs) and the 2024 presidential election have the potential to affect fuel prices in the year ahead, with a potential slowdown in the EV transition at stake, according to the report.

And Memorial Day will be the priciest 2024 holiday at the pump, with the national average price of gasoline expected to be $3.56-$4.04 per gallon on the holiday.

Atlanta-based PDI Technologies serves more than 200,000 locations worldwide with solutions like the Fuel Rewards program and GasBuddy, two popular brands representing more than 20 million active users.

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