Fuels

EVs Predicted to Make Up 50% of All Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by 2030

That’s an increase from the 1% of electric vehicles on the road today to 10% in 7 years, expert says at Convenience Retailing University
Anila Siraj
Photograph: Scott Mitchell

Electric-vehicle (EV) ownership is climbing, but EV’s share of the road is still small, according to Anila Siraj, senior vice president and EV practice lead at Impact 21, New York, who spoke at CSP’s Convenience Retailing University event in Nashville.

1.4 million plug-in electric vehicles were sold in the United States in 2023, which was 9.1% of total light-duty vehicle sales. That’s more than 50% year-over-year growth, according to the Department of Energy.

However, 2.5 million, or less than 1%, of all light duty vehicles on U.S. roads are electric.

Almost all automotive brands have increased their EV sales, both in absolute numbers and as a share of total brand sales, according to Impact 21.

In 2024, there will be an estimated 1.9 million EV sales.

By 2030, the United States is on track for EVs to be about 50% of light-duty vehicle sales. That brings the number of EVs on the road up to about 26.4 million, which is 10% of all light-duty cars being electric.

Convenience-store retailers, after understanding the growth trajectory, must consider who the EV customer is and align store offerings accordingly.

The EV Consumer Profile

The EV consumer profile is changing, Siraj said. The income levels are changing from consumers that are affluent homeowners to those renting, and consumers that are more likely to buy used vehicles and more cost-conscious. There’s also a change in the age group from older to younger, as well as from married to single.

“Understanding this demographic is key because if you’re looking to attract these consumers to your location, and not just generate revenue from recharging, but also the increased time they’re going to spend inside the store while they’re waiting to charge, it’s really important to understand what their wants and needs are,” Siraj said. “What do they want to do while they’re charging?”

Currently, 18% of EV chargers are located at gas stations and convenience stores, and an estimated 70% of those are Tesla Super Chargers, according to the Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) and Department of Energy.

The type of location with the most chargers are car dealerships (23%) and big-box stores (20%). Convenience stores, grocery stores and QSRs follow.

Understanding your customer can align offers, whether it’s a focus on food and beverage, access to business services like workstations, leisure activities such as playgrounds and dog parks or shopping for groceries.

Price Parity

The average price for an EV is just under $51,000, and the average price for an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle is just under $49,000, according to Cox Automotive research from January.

“We’re heading toward that price parity even though EVs do remain a little bit more expensive at the moment,” Siraj said.

Access to Chargers

As of February, the U.S. has nearly 172,000 public charging ports across 65,793 locations, according to the AFDC.

The locations of EV registrations across the country aren’t synched with the locations of EV charging stations.

The West Coast, Texas and the Northeast are heavier in EV registrations, but the number of stations needs to catch up, said Siraj.

“The seven states with the most plug-in car registrations are not the same seven states with the highest penetration of EV chargers,” she said. “California has the same number of chargers as the top 39 states [aside of California] combined.”

Consumers that own or are considering electric vehicles depend on charging stations. In fact, the key concern to be addressed is “range anxiety.” More public chargers are needed to encourage adoption, Siraj said.

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