LOUISVILLE, Colo. — Cannabis sales will grow from $25 billion in 2021 to $42 billion in 2026 in the United States, according to BDSA’s latest prediction.
The Louisville, Colo.-based cannabinoid-industry research firm expects global cannabis sales to be a $57 billion market by 2026 globally. It shared these findings in its updated cannabis market forecast, a five-year rolling global forecast by country, state, province channel and category.
Cannabis sales in the United States also grew in 2022, despite an inflationary environment and concerns about a recession that dampened consumer spending, BDSA said. By the end of the year, U.S. cannabis sales will reach $27 billion, a 7% increase from 2021, according to the firm.
“The ‘hockey stick’ trend of sales growth seen in the early years of legal cannabis has passed, and economic and regulatory headwinds are exerting pressure on legal cannabis markets,” said Roy Bingham, CEO of BDSA. “Still, our updated forecast predicts that steady gains in developing U.S. markets will continue to drive single-digit annual growth in total U.S. legal sales in 2022, with continued growth prospects out to 2026.”
While sales have plateaued or fallen in more mature markets—like California, Colorado, Nevada, Washington and Oregon—newer markets continue to see sales growth, BDSA said.
Illinois is expected to bring in $2 billion in cannabis sales in 2022—up 14% from 2021 sales. And newer markets like New jersey and New York represent an expansion of legal cannabis access to about 22 million adults, BDSA said.
While the most dramatic sales declines are expected to hit mature markets, driven by declines in retail prices and a challenging macroeconomic situation, medical markets have also been affected, BDSA said. This is partially due to patients having access to increasing variety and lower prices in neighboring adult-use markets.
BDSA helps businesses improve revenues, reduce innovation risk and prioritize market expansion with accurate and actionable cannabis market intelligence, consumer research and advisory services. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by generating insights from point-of-sale (POS) data, wholesale data, consumer research and market forecasts.
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