Downtrading Pressures May Increase for Nicotine

Report shows cigarette, e-cigarette volumes down
nicotine poches
Photograph: Shutterstock

NEW YORK — Downtrading pressures may increase when it comes to nicotine buying because the benefit of the federal government stimulus ended on July 31, according to a report from Bonnie Herzog, managing director of Goldman Sachs, New York.

Total nicotine volume decreased 2% for the two weeks ending on July 25, a slight deceleration compared to the 1.8% decrease for the last four-week period, Herzog said. 

Here is a look at how categories fared:

  • The cigarette category is holding steady, Herzog said. All channel cigarette dollar sales growth was up 3.1% for the two weeks ending on July 25. Higher pricing more than offset a deceleration in cigarette volume, which was down 2% during the same time.
  • The e-cigarette category continues to shrink, led by Juul, said Herzog. Category dollar sales declined 15.3% for the two-week period and volumes were down 16.1%. This was driven by the e-cigarette refill market, which includes rechargeable, non-tobacco/menthol flavored cartridges and pods that the FDA restricted in January.  
  • The e-cigarette disposable market, which only accounts for about 8% of the category, continues to expand; however, the FDA continues to crack down on players, including the popular Puff Bar, Herzog said.
  • The smokeless category growth accelerated, led by Grizzly, Copenhagen and oral nicotine strength, Herzog said. All channel smokeless dollar sales increased 10.7% for the two weeks and volumes were up 3.4%.


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